BITCOIN The most consistent trend-line since March.

Do you remember this chart I posted a month ago regarding Bitcoin's underlying trend-line? :


Well it is more relevant than ever today. As you see this trend-line has been indeed setting up the tempo since late March when the recovery following the COVID fueled melt-down stated.


** Before we start, please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. **


I will not analyze the structure and specifics of the pattern as I have done so in detail on the previous study. You can click on it and get the overall idea. What I will do now though is mention the necessary slight modifications that needed to be done due to the flat/ ranged price action since June.

First and foremost, the Channel had to be widened as since the rejection on the 10500 Resistance, the price never made another test. This means that as long as it doesn't go for that 2nd 10500 test, the bullish trend will be getting weaker and weaker and the probability for another 7k - 6k pull-back will grow. Especially in the event of a 2nd COVID wave, new stock market decline and new successive lock-downs in the U.S. and E.U.


** Phase 2 **
As you see on June 25 the price broke again below "the underlying trend-line", which is the pivot on this Channel Up, after trading 56 days above it. During that time BTCUSD had 1 clear test and rejection on the 10500 Resistance (which is holding since September 2019). Also it has 3 contacts (1 near) on the trend-line, testing it as Support. That was Phase 2 of this pattern.


** Phase 3 and 1 **
Right now BTC is well underway on Phase 3, which is the phase where it trades again below the Underlying Trend-line. This is similar to Phase 1, where the price had 3 contacts on the trend-line, testing it as Resistance. So far in Phase 3 we've had 2 contacts on the trend-line, but this time the price action is very compressed trading all candles near the Underlying Trend-line. This is, as mentioned, due to the fact that BTC has been ranged since June.


** The LMACD **
The only obvious difference of the current Phase (3) with the previous two Phases (2 and 1) is seen on the LMACD. Both Phase 1 and 2 started with the LMACD above the 0.00 point. Phase 3 has started with the LMACD below 0.00. Nonetheless it has continued with the same pattern (rise above 0, drop below and so on).


** Conclusion **
The ranged trading since early June is a sign that a big move is coming on Bitcoin. But until it does, the narrow range both on the price action and the LMACD shows that short-term traders have a good sideways opportunity to trade the price using the Underlying Trend-line as the Pivot.

Do you agree that another test of the trend-line is next to take place? Will there be another (tight ranged) Phase 4 above it afterwards? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!

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