Bitcoin Update: The Last Level Before...
Over the weekend Bitcoin 
BTCUSD topped out at a level which has multiple confluences. In this post I will break them down one by one and talk about what happens next...
Perhaps the most common level noted by commentators is the Trend Line/Expanding Wedge/Inverted Triangle. I personally do not put much faith in these lines or patterns. The reason I do not is because they are often arbitrary. They can be drawn from any of the different highs and lows to support a person's narrative. As a trader I want clearly defined and objective levels. That being said... everyone draws this line and so it can become a self fulfilling prophesy.
The additional levels give it more validity:
The elephant on the chart holding down price is (and has for a long time been) the prior All Time High from 2021. This important level has been haunting Bitcoin's much hoped for RIP for years and it continues to do so. Price has hit it again this weekend and stalled.
Lastly, the more nuanced but important level is the final Volume Profile zone. Again, price hit and stalled at it this weekend. There are no more true significant levels of prior price and volume between this level and the All Time High.
So what happens now? It is quite Boolean by my experience... a Yes/No with high probability. If THIS level (being discussed in this article) is broken then there is a very high probability that price will rocket from 69k to 74k as there are no more levels of resistance within that small range and the momentum should carry it up to the next level with certainty. Then, at the All Time High, price will certainly respond with another hold or a break. There is very good bullish trading of this small range. After the All Time High there will need to be a solid, confirmed breakout. To me this means a Weekly closing candle well above it. At that point... sky is the limit for Bitcoin.
Otherwise, price holds here and the long and expanding consolidation continues as well as falls back to the ETF launch level of 43k. This is what I am betting on.
Money where my mouth is:
I am talking my book. I still remain long term short bitcoin using
BITI (the inverse ETF). I have been watching these developments closely to determine if my position is still valid. It has been on the cusp of being invalid but still remains my thesis. Sunday night I entered additional futures contracts short at the level.
Trade wisely!
BTCUSD topped out at a level which has multiple confluences. In this post I will break them down one by one and talk about what happens next...Perhaps the most common level noted by commentators is the Trend Line/Expanding Wedge/Inverted Triangle. I personally do not put much faith in these lines or patterns. The reason I do not is because they are often arbitrary. They can be drawn from any of the different highs and lows to support a person's narrative. As a trader I want clearly defined and objective levels. That being said... everyone draws this line and so it can become a self fulfilling prophesy.
The additional levels give it more validity:
The elephant on the chart holding down price is (and has for a long time been) the prior All Time High from 2021. This important level has been haunting Bitcoin's much hoped for RIP for years and it continues to do so. Price has hit it again this weekend and stalled.
Lastly, the more nuanced but important level is the final Volume Profile zone. Again, price hit and stalled at it this weekend. There are no more true significant levels of prior price and volume between this level and the All Time High.
So what happens now? It is quite Boolean by my experience... a Yes/No with high probability. If THIS level (being discussed in this article) is broken then there is a very high probability that price will rocket from 69k to 74k as there are no more levels of resistance within that small range and the momentum should carry it up to the next level with certainty. Then, at the All Time High, price will certainly respond with another hold or a break. There is very good bullish trading of this small range. After the All Time High there will need to be a solid, confirmed breakout. To me this means a Weekly closing candle well above it. At that point... sky is the limit for Bitcoin.
Otherwise, price holds here and the long and expanding consolidation continues as well as falls back to the ETF launch level of 43k. This is what I am betting on.
Money where my mouth is:
I am talking my book. I still remain long term short bitcoin using
BITI (the inverse ETF). I have been watching these developments closely to determine if my position is still valid. It has been on the cusp of being invalid but still remains my thesis. Sunday night I entered additional futures contracts short at the level.Trade wisely!
"Be to others the person you needed to meet 10 years ago"
Discord Trading Community: discord.gg/eDfhKvS5AC
Youtube: youtube.com/c/NoroksNotepad
Twitter: twitter.com/noroktrade
Discord Trading Community: discord.gg/eDfhKvS5AC
Youtube: youtube.com/c/NoroksNotepad
Twitter: twitter.com/noroktrade
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