Bitcoin Macro Analysis

1 ott 2018

Here's another Bitcoin Macro Analysis:

1. D1 BB is max squeezed since the start of 2018 - high volatility major move soon (up or down)
2. volume is consolidating/declining - end of correction soon (move up or down)
3. some alts are starting to pump: XRP, BCH, LTC (both bullish or bearish)
4. shorts have declined from the record highs 40000 but are rising again towards 31000 and still above longs at 27000 (both bearish or bullish)
5. BAKKT launch in november soon (bullish)
6. ETF decision kind of postponed (bearish)
7. DOW S&P FAANG at record highs - possible stock market crash soon (bearish)
8. DXY starting to rise (bearish)
9. NVT Ratio at record highs charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-nvt-ratio/ (bearish. bullish only in massive adoption)
10. Fear and Greed Index rising (bearish or sideways)
11. We are making new higher lows since July (bullish)

Common sense:
1. BTC will not drop while shorts >> longs. It will likely drop when shorts < longs or around the same level.
- If everyone's shorting who's making the money? Whales/Exchanges simply won't give away their money to bears for free.
- It will most definetely drop only when shorts are at record lows with longs high enough
- they don't have enough liquidity to instantly drive the price up, people aren't bying, there's no follow through.
- they make money by slightly squeezing bears in sideways ranges until enough shorts are liquidated, longs are on a rise and it's finally time to drop

2. Stock market crash/dip will also mean BTC drop and Gold rise which can happen prior to or around the same day just like in Feb 2018.
- The opposite is not true. BTC collapse will not result in a stock market crash, but rather in a small dent
- BTC in general does not correlate with DJI and S&P, only with major trend defining moves.
- Some say the new Great Depression and Financial Crisis 2008 is coming

3. DXY sometimes reverse correlates with BTC on large TFs
- Fed rising interest rates => DXY rises => BTC drops

4. Pumping alts may signify a BTC rally soon (bullish) or an alt season (bearish)
- It's easier to pump a cheap alt and shift market sentiment to bullish
- Alts have their own cycles and a cycle in relation to BTC.
- In a normal market When BTC moves up a bit some alts follow, some decline
- when BTC moons/crashes alts moon/crash 5-10x more. In anticipation of a BTC rally alts can pump 5-10x more than the subsequent BTC move
- if an alt has already pumped prior to BTC move it won't likely pump again after
- alt season happens during BTC consolidation after a major move. During this time alts have their own cycles and are less dependent on BTC

pump cycle: ALTUSD -> ALTBTC -> BTCUSD -> ALTBTC -> ALTUSD
alts are sold for BTC, which is used to buy other ALTBTC pairs which are pumped in their turn, then BTC is pumped up and sold to complete the cycle

5. BAKKT is legally required to have BTC and should be accumulating now. They might have their own ETF/Futures, they don't need SEC's approval
They will rather buy it before launch and dump it after when the price rises.

6. High NVT Ratio means either massive adoption (which is definetely not) or a bubble and a crash soon.

7. Fear and Greed Index is a cumulative sentiment across all major platforms: buy when index is low, sell when index is high. It's rising now, not good time to buy.

8. Making it seem an overly Bearish Concept
- when market comes to a point when there's not enough liquidity and sellers willing to sell whales use fake sell walls to continue to accumulate and squeeze last bits.
- when accumulating the Market Makers usually don't sell their BTC to make the price go down further, but rather open large fake walls of shorts to scare people into selling into their longs
- that's why there's no big short squeeze, because there's nothing to squeeze - whales will remove the walls once the price approaches
- you can spot it when price first drops into a trading range with shorts rising and then pops back up out of it with the same amount of shorts closing (the avg shorts remain the same before and after the range)

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There are 2 counts:

1) WXYXZ (red)
triangle in Z and the end of correction - both bullish and bearish
- Bullish - we may go up and retest 11000 pivot (thin Ichimoku cloud will soon allow that) in 12345 up trend
- Bearish - WXYXZ can transform into a larger WXY and become only its first W wave, with whatever wave X up follows being just an upwards correction

2) WXY (blue) - bearish
Down Trend continuation in wave Y

Key levels (may trigger a major move):
- Supply Line (purple)
- Down Channel/Triangle Top (green)
- ADCDE triangle top side (yellow)
- Pitchfork top band (green)

Key targets:
- Pivot Retest (11750) (max possible price till year end)
- Pitchfork Mean Line (4200)
- 5150 and 5500 Demand Zone bottoms
- 23.6% Fib level Algo Target + Y of WXY Projection Confluence
- 7500 Demand Zone tops
- 7400 D1 SMA/EMA 200

Good Luck! Please, don't trade based only on my analysis, confirm/disprove using other sources.

1 ott 2018

Nota

Expect on a triangle/pitchfork boundary:

- a fakeout/overthrow to the upside, then a move down with possible capitulation spike (very short term), then a bullish rally towards the launch of Bakkt in wave X or

- a drop to the middle/bottom of the Demand Zone with new ATL and short term recovery

- sideways continuation with even more consolidation until enough shorts are removed and it's time to move either up or down (if we cross the pitchfork to the up side and stay there)

- huge H1 candles with long wicks on both sides - expiration of CBOE (Sep 19) and CME futures (Sep 28) are the examples of what to expect

1 ott 2018

Nota

also watch this:
KWON - remaining EW macro counts (mostly bearish, ignore pitchfork ping pong nonsense) youtube.com/watch?v=Du-Iqc_Z2mY

Bitcoin Trading Challenge 3 scenario probabilities (bull bear sideways) youtube.com/watch?v=EeIfMQgpSLs

TexasWest Capital (usually bullish) youtube.com/watch?v=vlbQTNJuRD0

1 ott 2018

Nota

Also note that there are 2 possible locations for the red 2nd (X):
- wave X is a zigzag up (current location), followed by a zigzag down in Z (bearish)
- wave X is a yellow ABCDE triangle (X should be placed above E)
elliot wave rules allow for a triangle only in the last waves of WXY (Y) and WXYXZ (Z) and in their last X waves (2nd X being the last X of WXYXZ). In case of a triangle X a zigzag down or flat Z may follow or the triangle can just break up.

you can also have a triangle in the last wave E of a triangle. So, you can force a count where the yellow ABCDE triangle is wave E of a huge "triangle" of the entire correction.

1 ott 2018

Nota

here's a screenshot with alt locations of both red and blue wave X for reference

15 ott 2018

Nota

Lost confidence in Tether/Bitfinex and Binance possibly delisting Tether FUD news cause a Tether drop to 0.85 ATL on Kraken, Bittrex, Poloniex on the Asian markets opening also resulting in a huge BTC spike to 7800 on some exchanges. Poloniex already switched to USDC Circle coin backed by USD. BTW you can see this spike in my analysis (a small green fakeout arrow up).