BTC bear/correction scenarios (short term)

6 mag 2018

Currently looking like we are in a wave 4.
So thinking one more leg down.

7 mag 2018

Nota

Forgot to add this note to the chart.
If price passes 618 at 9700 by much, count is invalidated.
But watching for a spike above to raid stops, then down to wave 5.

7 mag 2018

Nota

Maybe like this:

7 mag 2018

Nota

Adjusted my first possible buy zone, 9211 - 9251

7 mag 2018

Nota

Better range 9185 - 9211

7 mag 2018

Nota

Just noticed the brand new weekly M3 pivot (purple)
9200 looking really really good now.

7 mag 2018

Nota

Oops typo for the number .
New Pivot is at 9215

7 mag 2018

Nota

At the moment of truth.
or is it Point of No Return :(
1st small limit buy triggered.
I am stacking them closer to 9200

7 mag 2018

Nota

Decent bounce but not very convincing... yet.....

7 mag 2018

Nota

Bounce looking better.
Now I need it to take the GREEN Pill.

7 mag 2018

Nota

Need to get past 9400 to rule out double bottom attempt

7 mag 2018

Nota

I am thinking double bottom around 9200

7 mag 2018

Nota

This still looks like a wave 4 down to me.
But from how it is behaving, I think wave 5 will NOT be much lower.

7 mag 2018

Nota

Looking good.
Getting past 9400 was crucial.
Now just need to hold it without dropping much below it.

8 mag 2018

Nota

Looks to me like correct OVA.
Back on the 10.4k Highway!!

8 mag 2018

Nota

These pull back scalps were part of my bigger plan:

8 mag 2018

Nota

Thinking we might see one more test of 9k.
If it holds, momentum might turn around.
If it breaks, look out below.

8 mag 2018

Nota

Approaching critical price zone

9 mag 2018

Nota

Looks like rejection where expected.
So maybe wave 4 is done now and wave 5 has begun.
If so, 9k will be tested and that will be the critical moment.

9 mag 2018

Nota

.
Micro Fib points to double bottom, so maybe we wont go as low as 9k per above:

9 mag 2018

Nota

Fibs still say possible double bottom above 9k.
BUT and interesting observation of this latest wave playing the .236 note.

9 mag 2018

Nota

So much for that micro bounce above.
Now the question real bounce or not.


I am not convinced. The lack of any speed bumps to break 9k was a bad sign

9 mag 2018

Nota

The green zone around 9k did pick up a bunch of my limit longs, and an now managing stops. If we get past 9060 and hold, then I will be less concerned.

9 mag 2018

Nota

BTC bounce at a critical juncture, and the Nikkei just took a little dip. not a good sign.... (nikkei and btc have been positively correlated tonight)

9 mag 2018

Nota

My Fibs are pointing to one more dip, 8850 maybe

11 mag 2018

Nota

Last Chance for a bounce, maybe this ABC is done, picture perfect if it happens:

11 mag 2018

Nota

Have found a bottom?