Major Longterm Resistance Zone / Major Jan/Feb 2018 S/R Flip
To summarize and give a bit of background:
In Jan/Feb of 2018 we experienced mayhem of the Major Support / Resistance Flip. We were shown the infamous technical pattern called the "Inverted Head and Shoulders" of a potential reversal and the the Bears decided to take advantage and flip the script. As the bulls anticipated a major long at this important level, the bears took full advantage of the liquidity that flooded the order books and flushed down price. Those Bulls who placed their Hail Mary positions at the bottom of that spike profited heavily on the swing back up. Some say it was the coincidental timing of the Mt. Gox Bitcoin sell off to return money back to the victims of the Exchange failure, and some blame CBOE / CME derivative short activity, or even both. Regardless of the cause, it was a major turning point to our crypto financial standing and confirmed that the bears were in town as the level became a full blown major resistance level at the retest.
We are here now, a year and a half later in July 2019 and are facing the very same level that put us into crypto financial crisis. We want to take a look at this very level and try to make out what can happen here and what possibilities can arise from this turning point in Crypto.
As we stated before, in 2018, there were slews of bearish news from Bitcoin legalities to scams with exchanges, and introductions of Major crypto futures market. We were hit with the worst of the worst to drawdown the major phenomenon of the birth of a new currency/asset class only to speculate the big players wanted in. We experienced the Lows at the 3K zone and the escalator like algorithmic accumulation at the bottom only to be hit with speculative news that Crypto was here to stay. Bitcoin became in extreme demand and to be deemed the next major market for retail and institutional players alike.
So now to the Technicals, This was an obvious parabolic advance according to my Elliot wave count, the first major impulse in my observation was a 1:2:3 extension. It grew exponentially as volume kept rolling in every 30-45 days. It was a sign of majors rolling into the game and did not care to hold for anyone. The pullbacks were short and kept continuing. The second major impulse was a 1:1 extension of the first parabolic impulse which averaged a $6200 increase in price. Now we are here at the major resistance level and wave 4 being the symmetrical triangle deciding our fate.
For those of you who don't know Elliot wave theory, Wave 4 is usually shown as a symmetric triangle pattern and indicates major selloffs at the top of Wave 3 by the majors while the mass retail is still fomo'ing. Its a fight between seller and buyers. If there are more sell offs by the majors, the triangle breaks off to the down side, and if the Mass retailers outweigh the selloffs , then Wave 5 breaks up and completes until last minute retail fomo is complete.
In my opinion we are at this very level. Buyers and Sellers are in a huge battle trying to claim this very level that decided our fates in 2018. With the news catalysts around, I can see more upside to this fight than downside. Banks are ready to play and every major company wants into the cryptoverse. We are experiencing a phase where majors are fomo'ing into the space and we are entering a new wave of technical advance. Can crypto develop fast enough to catch up with the money or will we see another crypto winter when we realize there are no working products yet. Is Bitcoin going to be the only player by the end of 2019? Bitcoin Halving in May 2020 is a major pull for increased Bitcoin Dominance. Are your Altbags worth holding as they keep plummeting to the BTC dominance.
All I can say is, I personally am expecting another 6k-ish run up when we decide to bust out of this fight.
For Now we are Neutral and look for signs of a break out.
Not to be taken as financial advice. Entertainment only.
In Jan/Feb of 2018 we experienced mayhem of the Major Support / Resistance Flip. We were shown the infamous technical pattern called the "Inverted Head and Shoulders" of a potential reversal and the the Bears decided to take advantage and flip the script. As the bulls anticipated a major long at this important level, the bears took full advantage of the liquidity that flooded the order books and flushed down price. Those Bulls who placed their Hail Mary positions at the bottom of that spike profited heavily on the swing back up. Some say it was the coincidental timing of the Mt. Gox Bitcoin sell off to return money back to the victims of the Exchange failure, and some blame CBOE / CME derivative short activity, or even both. Regardless of the cause, it was a major turning point to our crypto financial standing and confirmed that the bears were in town as the level became a full blown major resistance level at the retest.
We are here now, a year and a half later in July 2019 and are facing the very same level that put us into crypto financial crisis. We want to take a look at this very level and try to make out what can happen here and what possibilities can arise from this turning point in Crypto.
As we stated before, in 2018, there were slews of bearish news from Bitcoin legalities to scams with exchanges, and introductions of Major crypto futures market. We were hit with the worst of the worst to drawdown the major phenomenon of the birth of a new currency/asset class only to speculate the big players wanted in. We experienced the Lows at the 3K zone and the escalator like algorithmic accumulation at the bottom only to be hit with speculative news that Crypto was here to stay. Bitcoin became in extreme demand and to be deemed the next major market for retail and institutional players alike.
So now to the Technicals, This was an obvious parabolic advance according to my Elliot wave count, the first major impulse in my observation was a 1:2:3 extension. It grew exponentially as volume kept rolling in every 30-45 days. It was a sign of majors rolling into the game and did not care to hold for anyone. The pullbacks were short and kept continuing. The second major impulse was a 1:1 extension of the first parabolic impulse which averaged a $6200 increase in price. Now we are here at the major resistance level and wave 4 being the symmetrical triangle deciding our fate.
For those of you who don't know Elliot wave theory, Wave 4 is usually shown as a symmetric triangle pattern and indicates major selloffs at the top of Wave 3 by the majors while the mass retail is still fomo'ing. Its a fight between seller and buyers. If there are more sell offs by the majors, the triangle breaks off to the down side, and if the Mass retailers outweigh the selloffs , then Wave 5 breaks up and completes until last minute retail fomo is complete.
In my opinion we are at this very level. Buyers and Sellers are in a huge battle trying to claim this very level that decided our fates in 2018. With the news catalysts around, I can see more upside to this fight than downside. Banks are ready to play and every major company wants into the cryptoverse. We are experiencing a phase where majors are fomo'ing into the space and we are entering a new wave of technical advance. Can crypto develop fast enough to catch up with the money or will we see another crypto winter when we realize there are no working products yet. Is Bitcoin going to be the only player by the end of 2019? Bitcoin Halving in May 2020 is a major pull for increased Bitcoin Dominance. Are your Altbags worth holding as they keep plummeting to the BTC dominance.
All I can say is, I personally am expecting another 6k-ish run up when we decide to bust out of this fight.
For Now we are Neutral and look for signs of a break out.
Not to be taken as financial advice. Entertainment only.
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