BTC - End of Bear Market? Regression / HyperWave Update + $1k
Revisiting the Regression Trend and Hyperwave posts I made for myself and these are looking pretty accurate.
All my posts are to help me learn how the market moves and these have been my best macro TA tools to date. If any humans (vs. the bots) read this I suggest to do some research on these.
Takeaway:
- Although I got a little REKT trying to trade the drop (let's face it it was brutal and stupid to trade) these two tools have helped identify a potential bottom and end of 2018 bear market (??? tbc).
- The speed this bottom is forming suggests a move up sooner rather than later.
Regression:
- In my regression trend post I assumed (wrongly) that we might launch off the median into a new bullish run. Now it is clear (for now) that we were heading to the bottom of the long-term channel (1) and the short-term (2).
Hyperwave:
- Based on my understanding of Hyperwave I managed to correctly identify an opportunity on WRX (4x) and I applied this to BTC whilst overlaying the Regression Trend data. I had 2x scenarios, the second had a bottom of around $4,200 (which was pretty close! (if this remains the bottom).
Can we hit $1000? (4)
- IMAO it is still viable. A 3rd mid-term Regression Trend can be run of the 2017 Dec top (3) which declines and offers a potential
1K target (not featured here besides a red base line as the chart would be too cluttered - just draw a Regression Trend across from this point to see potential further downside).
- This would offer a target of1K before June. Halving on the 18th May could align well with this.
- I expect the Market Maker doesn't want to buy at the same price as everyone else - a bullish move up will mean those waiting for the1K will have to jump in to avoid missing the bus..
Next Steps:
- Whilst we have seen a minor rally now I think there are more minor dips to come (although not as deep as historical bottoms (2018 & 19). The extreme drop we saw had some major reaction up and down. Obviously there are wider macro forces at plat inc S&P. If monor dips happn the this might drive down some of the ALTs but I would see this as further accumulation.
- If we drop below this mark then the1K is on.. and would come quickly.
A few naive opinions from me.
Best, Hard Forky
All my posts are to help me learn how the market moves and these have been my best macro TA tools to date. If any humans (vs. the bots) read this I suggest to do some research on these.
Takeaway:
- Although I got a little REKT trying to trade the drop (let's face it it was brutal and stupid to trade) these two tools have helped identify a potential bottom and end of 2018 bear market (??? tbc).
- The speed this bottom is forming suggests a move up sooner rather than later.
Regression:
- In my regression trend post I assumed (wrongly) that we might launch off the median into a new bullish run. Now it is clear (for now) that we were heading to the bottom of the long-term channel (1) and the short-term (2).
Hyperwave:
- Based on my understanding of Hyperwave I managed to correctly identify an opportunity on WRX (4x) and I applied this to BTC whilst overlaying the Regression Trend data. I had 2x scenarios, the second had a bottom of around $4,200 (which was pretty close! (if this remains the bottom).
Can we hit $1000? (4)
- IMAO it is still viable. A 3rd mid-term Regression Trend can be run of the 2017 Dec top (3) which declines and offers a potential
1K target (not featured here besides a red base line as the chart would be too cluttered - just draw a Regression Trend across from this point to see potential further downside).- This would offer a target of
1K before June. Halving on the 18th May could align well with this.- I expect the Market Maker doesn't want to buy at the same price as everyone else - a bullish move up will mean those waiting for the
1K will have to jump in to avoid missing the bus..Next Steps:
- Whilst we have seen a minor rally now I think there are more minor dips to come (although not as deep as historical bottoms (2018 & 19). The extreme drop we saw had some major reaction up and down. Obviously there are wider macro forces at plat inc S&P. If monor dips happn the this might drive down some of the ALTs but I would see this as further accumulation.
- If we drop below this mark then the
1K is on.. and would come quickly.A few naive opinions from me.
Best, Hard Forky
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