Bitcoin Daily Update (day 332)

21 feb 2019

Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge


Consensio: P > S MA > M MA > L MA

Patterns: Phase 7 Hyperwave | A&E
Horizontals: R: $3,993 | S: $3,891
Trendline: At $4,577
Parabolic SAR: $3,514
Futures Curve: Contango
BTCUSDSHORTS: Appears to be resisting throwback to TL. Failure to maintain trend would indicate a change in market disposition where less are inclined to short sell these prices.
Funding Rates: Longs will receive 0.0213% (this is very surprising)
TD’ Sequential: D G5 | W G3 > G2
Ichimoku Cloud: Attempting to close weekly above Tenkan-Sen for first time since Aug 2018
Relative Strength Index: Above 70 for first time since July 2018
Average Directional Index: Daily found support at 20 and created a higher high above 25 providing nice confirmation of this only being the beginning of the trend.
Price Action: 24h: + 0.73% 2w: +16% 1m: +11.9%
Bollinger Bands: Third close above top band. Want to see price continue to stick to that band.
Stochastic Oscillator: Weekly buy signal | Incoming daily sell

Summary: Over the last couple weeks a lot has changed for me. Namely I was asked to co author the book on Hyperwaves with Tyler Jenks and Leah Wald! I couldn’t be more excited about the opportunity, however trying to find the time has been a bit of a challenge.

My day was already scheduled so tightly that I barely had a free 30 minutes in an entire week. Now I am needing to adjust my priorities in order to make time for writing. Unfortunately that means I have less time to analyze charts and trade.

This was not a problem when the markets were dormant and quite uninteresting, however that hasn’t been the case over the last few days. While I haven’t been able to do as much analysis as I would like I am keeping a close eye on what is most important:

The 4 & 9 week EMA’s.

ETHUSD is working on it’s first bullish crossover since April of 2018 and it looks like BTC will be following closely behind. Look back over the past years and calculate how much you would have returned if you simply would have bought every bullish crossover and then taken profit and shorted every bearish crossover.

You would have bought BTC around $600 in 2016 and sold around $12,300. I am not suggesting that type of move will happen again, or anywhere close to it, I am suggesting that you should do some backtesting and see how powerful this indicator can be. Being in confluence with the weekly Stochastic buy signal provides great confirmation.

This market is showing all the signs of a big bounce, which is still hard for me to wrap my head around. Therefore I will just be taking it day by day. Being very careful about how I manage my positions and not allowing myself to become too convinced of one outcome or the another. As it stands today I am continuing to add to my long exposure and am really liking what I am seeing.

The only reason I am not calling a bottom is because I do not believe we have capitulated and that is my most important indicator for calling the bottom of a bear market.