BTC about 10-15% lower from here, 80% probability!

9 nov 2022

Many might feel that this is an excellent time to buy, but I expect another 10-15% drop in price for BTC over the next week at the minimum. Never catch a falling knife! Across the board, we see high-spread ( high-low ) candles that only grew as time progressed for altcoins. This indicates a massive supply-demand imbalance where a ton of supply is coming into the market. The fear is very high. The high fear state tells us it is an opportune time to buy. However, I don't think we have seen the stopping volume yet. Stopping volume is when massive volume comes from institutional traders.

Here is an example from the past of what to look for.


Once the stopping volume comes, there will be many attempts at the low, and this will be the time to buy. We will only see a V shape recovery when there is massive intervention, like what the FED did during the 2020 crash. If there is no such intervention, there will be no V shape, so there is no need to catch a falling knife 🔪 ☠️

-10% vs +10% from here, what are the odds? Over an 80% probability for us to see -10% from here before we see 10%.
Just so you know that I'm not pulling these probabilities from thin air like some folks here. It's coming from the trading system that I've developed over the past year 😊
ibb.co/4g6BNMg

Not trading advice. For education purposes only.