This was optimal move for BTC dump setup.

2 mar

Bleh I got out my longs too early. This was the move I originally positioned for.

Anyway, this was exactly the move I was looking for to take a sizable attempt at the crash trade. I really hate shorting into drops because if you get it wrong, things like this happen. But I really love shorting into things like this because if you get it wrong then you don't have an big risk area left (so long as you use sensible stops) and you get paid BIG if you're right.

This looks like a classic final bull trap before a capitulation move to me.

Picking up a portfolio of shorts betting on a 40% drop across crypto. More on some of the alts.

Crypto crash incoming soon - if I have this right.

2 mar

Trade chiuso manualmente

Real wipe out event possible.

Would really think it's a great idea to be getting full out crypto - imminently.


Big shorts on 95K

2 mar

Nota

BTC can be fickle for the false breakouts but in standard theory now we've ran a little over the should be reversal and are back at, we should dump off the retest.

93K.

2 mar

Nota

Classic pattern would have us at the end of the bull trap and heading into a puke now.

3 mar

Nota

Locking in profits with trailing stops now. If the break is coming we should be consistently weak. Otherwise I'd be worried about a spike higher for a bull trap. I'd like to short that if it comes. And I might have the whole thing wrong, so I want to make sure I don't lose twice if I don't have to. Locked in some profits behind local swings highs, waiting to see if it breaks.

Can waterfall if we make a new low for the day.

4 mar

Nota

This might be about to get far worse. A whole nastier tone to the selling in BTC if we make a clean break here.

4 mar

Nota

4 mar

Nota

If you're a follower of my work, you'll know when we get to the 76 is when I do my profit protecting on a position, be it long or short.

Same applies here.



Stops trailed to lock in profits.

Typically I buy here. Take a lot to stop me buyinng a 76 corrcection on a move over 10%.

But ... that is one sketchy looking bull trap, if I have this right - it's shallow retraces and big breaks all the way down.

I'll skip the long. Still short.

4 mar

Nota

Into the rally I feel the BTC chart was much a chart of context. If you were looking at the small charts, it looked like a perfect rally. All is well and good with the world.

If you zoomed out, it was a retest of a level that had turned the market on a staggering 90% of previous touches. Statistically, there was a 90% chance that rally would reject.

4 mar

Nota

Tradingview must start the BTC weekly candle on a different day from my broker so we have totally different weekly candles but both look ultra bearish.

Using the start day of my broker, the weekly rejection is far more obvious.

Textbook wick off resistance.

4 mar

Nota

Now people are clambering to find some alt way to look at this to make it look bullish. "Hidden patterns" and such.

Sometimes, the old school obvious patterns are the way to go.

4 mar

Nota

Have you noticed BTC has now dumped pretty much day after day after day and is down 1/4 from the high and during this whole time the TradingView community has not upvoted a single bear post to the front page.

Closest to a bear post there is was this one from me.

Which was bullish when I posted it.

And even this one sits at the bottom of the page.

Even although it was correct for 25% worth of moves down and up.

...Do you think there's some head burying going on?

4 mar

Nota

Here's a thing;

Last month BTC closed with a bearish engulf. When you look through all the previous instances of this, this appears to have 100% hit rate for a down move the month after.

Nothing is 100% in the future ... but those seem like unfavourable odds.

4 mar

Nota

If you're seeing bull analysis that states the low is in, this could be right - but it is very ignorant of the history of BTC trading (I mean the real moves, not the cycle which can be changed and tweaked to match what happens).

The most logical bull move now would be this.


Now I'm not saying things have to be logical. Nor comply with TA. Weird things happen. But if this is not considered as a default risk, then the analysis is probably hopeful rather than analytical.

4 mar

Nota

And that's the optimistic outlook.

A bear might have it something more like this.

4 mar

Nota

Starting to size up my short bets again now into the rally.

4 mar

Nota

I've been suggesting people get out of crypto since 100K but this really would seem the point to make a timely exit before a real break.

If we break now, you're not going to be seeing these prices again... you'll be seeing <50K.