Bitcoin Double Top Rejection?

21 apr 2018

This recent rally seems to be more than just a short squeeze as I had originally thought, but we are still not out of the woods. The downtrend on the daily is still intact. The next major resistance is $9,200, breaking that level would be very meaningful and would definitely change my opinion on the longer-term time frame. With that said, the RSI on nearly all the shorter time frame from 5 min to 4hrs is very overextended and even the RSI on the daily has not been this high since December. For that reason, I think we will likely be heading back down within the next few days. The real question is whether we get a violent Judas candle down or a minor dip that is quickly bought up.

This next week would be an important one to watch out for as it will signal where we be headed in the weeks to come. Currently, there is a no trade short though if it creeps up any higher, I could entertain scaling in for a short-trade between 8950 - 9200.

24 apr 2018

Nota

It finally broke 9.2k and price action remains to be really bullish with dips quickly bought up. With that said, the 4 hr RSI is oversold and I still think we are due for a pullback. In addition the short to long margin ratio have increased to ~1.35, increasingly the likelihood of margin longs getting liquidated on a drop.

I can see this maybe hitting 9.4k at this moment but in my opinion there is greater downside risk, hence I have yet to close my short position.