Bitcoin Forecast - Hopium for the plebs
Following the last market cycles (bull/bear) we can see that the 100WMA and 200WMA crucial are and in the past history always worked as the support and bottom indicator.
Following my chart you can see that the 100MA is already broken and the 200MA is around 22k. Taking into account that the last cycle top from the 2017 bull market was never tested a further drop in the 20k area might be possible.
Market Cycle length: I indicated the bull and bear length in days. The bull usually last around 1000 days and from top to bottom within a 380 days. Taken the top from November 2021 as the peak we are currently on the end phase of a bear cycle.
I'm thinking as well about short-end or lengthened cycles considering that we are in a really wired situation, looking at YOU inflation (M2 extension, Rate highs etc). I would not be surprised if we hit the target range soon and drag out the bottom like we did in May 2021 during the last >50% crash from the 65k peak.
RSI: well, well, well the first time we were in the 30k range we had an overbought signal from the RSI, now we are back below 30k and we have a massive oversold indicator. I indicated the last time the RSI was so low which matches with the bottom signal of every cycle.
I know its hard at the moment , but here some hopium: The 200MA has never been broken (okok stock to flow was also never been broken before), the RSI <30 has always worked as a bottom indicator.
As for other crypto stuff "what about luna" , i guess luna is a smaller problem, but one thing is for sure the senat and congress will use the UST incident as their new "bitcoin is used by criminals" argument.
We went through similar cases with bitconnect (man what a time) and one Coin in the good old days.
bitcoin became stronger, countries adopted it, Pubplic companies hold it on the balnce sheet. Lots of ETFs around the world (sure not spot in US), sure since the Future ETF we actually drop, but so did we when we got futures in dec 2017.
Focus, dollar cost average. Maybe put up some longs around 22k-18k, have some fun, place limit orders and close the charts for a bit.
Summary:
on the weekly look at the 200MA, Looks at the RSI, think about all the RED you see and wonder how this all might be correlated. BTC has the highest correlation with the nasdaq, got a solid beta though.
as a wise man said "We gonna die on this Hill"
Bitcoin is hope, do not lose hope because the market drop, embrace it, get mroe
Following my chart you can see that the 100MA is already broken and the 200MA is around 22k. Taking into account that the last cycle top from the 2017 bull market was never tested a further drop in the 20k area might be possible.
Market Cycle length: I indicated the bull and bear length in days. The bull usually last around 1000 days and from top to bottom within a 380 days. Taken the top from November 2021 as the peak we are currently on the end phase of a bear cycle.
I'm thinking as well about short-end or lengthened cycles considering that we are in a really wired situation, looking at YOU inflation (M2 extension, Rate highs etc). I would not be surprised if we hit the target range soon and drag out the bottom like we did in May 2021 during the last >50% crash from the 65k peak.
RSI: well, well, well the first time we were in the 30k range we had an overbought signal from the RSI, now we are back below 30k and we have a massive oversold indicator. I indicated the last time the RSI was so low which matches with the bottom signal of every cycle.
I know its hard at the moment , but here some hopium: The 200MA has never been broken (okok stock to flow was also never been broken before), the RSI <30 has always worked as a bottom indicator.
As for other crypto stuff "what about luna" , i guess luna is a smaller problem, but one thing is for sure the senat and congress will use the UST incident as their new "bitcoin is used by criminals" argument.
We went through similar cases with bitconnect (man what a time) and one Coin in the good old days.
bitcoin became stronger, countries adopted it, Pubplic companies hold it on the balnce sheet. Lots of ETFs around the world (sure not spot in US), sure since the Future ETF we actually drop, but so did we when we got futures in dec 2017.
Focus, dollar cost average. Maybe put up some longs around 22k-18k, have some fun, place limit orders and close the charts for a bit.
Summary:
on the weekly look at the 200MA, Looks at the RSI, think about all the RED you see and wonder how this all might be correlated. BTC has the highest correlation with the nasdaq, got a solid beta though.
as a wise man said "We gonna die on this Hill"
Bitcoin is hope, do not lose hope because the market drop, embrace it, get mroe
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