Historical Bitcoin ATH drawdown to Fib retrace and % decline

Bitcoin ATH drawdown to Fib retrace and % decline

2011 to 0.236 retrace = =92.41%


2013 to 0.236 retrace = -78.27%


2017 to 0.382 retrace = -82.20%


2021 to 0.5 retrace = -76.40%


Also note how PA bounces off the 50 Week SMA ( Red ) after every ATH except for in 2011. I have only included the 2011 High as it also reached down the the 0.236 after ATH.
But it Must be remembered that the 2011 High is NOT in any channels. It did however, become the support and origin of the current Lower line of Long Term support.



Every other ATH had a draw down to the 50 week SMA, a bounce higher and then fell through the SMA. (2017 is slightly different but this is still valid )
The 2021 Bounce led to a new ATH for the first time.

Currently from Current 2025 ATH, we have still not reached the 0.236 on the current draw Down but we have fallen through the 50 week SMA for the first time this Cycle.


This is VERY different from previous Cycles. You will also note how PA has previously bounced off the 50 SMA 3 times this cycle already, on or very near a Fib line..
Again, Very different behaviour.
However, as you can see from the main chart, we have used Every single Fib line on the way up. It was fairly similar in the lead up to the 2017 ATH.
To me, this validates these Fib lines.

But What I want to look at is how the 2021 PA went to an ATH, retraced back to its own 0.236 line, on the 50 Week SMA ( Red), bounced to a New ATH and then Draw down, a small bounce and fell through the 50 SMA.
That second draw down did not reach the 236 > it bounced up till it collided with the 50 week SMA and then went into a full on Bear.
All that happened between the 0 and the 0.236 Fib Retrace lines, untill it fell through .

To many extents, Bitcoin PA is repeating this.
We hit a new ATH in Jan 2025, retreated to the current 0.236 and the 50 Week SMA, bounced to a New ATH in October and have been in retreat since, never yet reaching the 0.236 again.
I am currently looking to see when current PA hits the 50 week SMA.

The 50 week SMA will be Met, at current trajectory around the 100K usdt mark.
Then, if we follow the 2021 pattern, PA will get rejected and we will eventually head to the 44K zone on the 0.5 Fib retrace. Which also happens to be the line that PA bounced off in 2021, its 0.236 fib line.
That is around a -63% retrace. LESS than previous retracements.
That follows the 2021 route.
Current PA is also stil running between the 0 and the 0.236 fib retracement lines. As the 2 ATH's did in 2021. We do seem to be following a simialr Technical pattern.
Look back though the other ATH and see how the 236 was used.

BUT if we look back to the previous Fib retrace lines..We seem to be going to the next Fib retracement level sown after each ATH, before a meaningful bounce.
2013 to 0.236 retrace
2017 to 0.382 retrace
2021 to 0.5 retrace

If we follow This, the next for this cycle could be the 0.618, which sits at 34,966 usdt

I do yet think this will Happen and 7here is NO guareantee this will happen but I have found it very interesting how PA is repeating a number of patterns, certainly, currently, the similarity to the 2021 ATH structures.
Another was From October 2021 till June 2025, we had PA running a near perfect copy of the 2013 to 2017 Fracel.


This has now changed and we follow a later route

This Can obviously get Broken completely by Fundamentals....which are Mental right now.

And then, we have the Shouts of "This time is Different. "
YES and NO.
As this post shows, there are many similarities and yet, at the same time, The way PA has reacted and moved this cycle, if it is a cycle, is also unique,,,
And another reason for that, is studied in earlier posts about "The Blur Arc of resistance"

And we may well just keep on going to a New higher ATH in 2026.
While the current draw down has been painful, there is no confirmed Bear market yet

I hope this gets you thinking.....Enjoy....
I would love to hear yur Views