BTC $6800 +reversal, clash of 5yr asc trend & 4mo+ desc channel
Two major adjustments here to my previous TA for BTC. I realized that the trend that kicked off this run to $14k was actually a continuation of the trend that started @$250 in 2015, this caused the line to slightly tilt clockwise pushing the date to the right for intersection of this multi-month descending channel and the overall ascending trend line which I believe will signal the beginning of the reversal of the downtrend we have experienced since $14k. I have changed that line to bold red.
Second change is that I moved from 4h candles to 1d candles and it made a massive difference in the position of the current descending channel we have been in since $14k. It makes it easy to see we had never really broke out of channel on the 1d candles and the possibility for a ~$6800 low (depending on timing) is quite feasible. The support at bottom of channel has held for ~4 months now, there is no reason to believe it will would not hold now.
Timing, when will the reversal come:
If the price drops to bottom of channel and hangs out, we may see an intersection forced reversal start by mid-late December. If the price maintains in the $8k area it could be as late as late April, early May of 2020.
With a 5 year trend line still intact, there is strong probability that BTC will not break below this trend line in any meaningful fashion. If BTC breaks below the 5 year trend line, it would be extremely bearish. I believe the overarching trend line will hold and that intersections of the two largest trends will kick off a reversal of the current descent.
This is not investment advice, DYOR.
Second change is that I moved from 4h candles to 1d candles and it made a massive difference in the position of the current descending channel we have been in since $14k. It makes it easy to see we had never really broke out of channel on the 1d candles and the possibility for a ~$6800 low (depending on timing) is quite feasible. The support at bottom of channel has held for ~4 months now, there is no reason to believe it will would not hold now.
Timing, when will the reversal come:
If the price drops to bottom of channel and hangs out, we may see an intersection forced reversal start by mid-late December. If the price maintains in the $8k area it could be as late as late April, early May of 2020.
With a 5 year trend line still intact, there is strong probability that BTC will not break below this trend line in any meaningful fashion. If BTC breaks below the 5 year trend line, it would be extremely bearish. I believe the overarching trend line will hold and that intersections of the two largest trends will kick off a reversal of the current descent.
This is not investment advice, DYOR.