calumon

Bitcoin surprised us a lot. Let's learn from this

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollaro
To begin with: I did not expect this. I've expected a drop after a few days of sideways movement. But was still bullish . The reason was: what else? The drop I thought of was min 7200 USD. But we dropped really hard.

Panic selling at it's best did make us lose money. Well. Let's see what happened:

We had the sideways movement I expected in my last Bitcoin chart. Everything went according to my expectations at the beginning. Then we dropped instead of going up. How did this happen? Well. As you can see at the RSI , we were around 50% all the time. It was the perfect time to either go up or down -> BTC went down. Same goes for MACD .

Apart from that we didn't have any increase in volume since 2 months! It was just time that something happened. The lack of news didn't trigger anything. Something else triggered the begin of a drop - I don't know what it was. There are some negative news but they shouldn't have been enough to do this.

But the chart is ALWAYS right! There is nothing as failure in a chart. The chart goes according to buys and sells. This time we dropped without understanding. Next time we go up without understanding. That's it.

What will happen now? According to my experience we will go up a little bit and then drop again. Why? Because people got scared and wait for a good selling opportunity. That will come ASAP as it's expected that the price will raise. Then, scared people will sell again -> resulting in a sideways/ bearish movement.

But that will be over fast and will make you unsure. You will lose more money! To be fair, BTC is oversold right now. But we didn't hit anything relevant. That's why I can imagine more drops till 6000. But it wouldn't fit with my expectations of overall market pattern. That's why I'm holding my positions even when it means short time losses. My experience tells me that every move I can do right now will end up in me losing money.

My experience also tells me that the overall correction isn't over, yet. We are still not in a uptrend, nor in a downtrend. Overall, we are in a correction!

Commenti

I expected it but not quite so soon. I expected it to be starting right about now, soon after the candle for the weekly. But I think because there was little chance eight hours before that BTC would rise enough to close above $7305, people just started selling off. I do agree that it's not over.
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