A quick look at the daily BTCUSD shows an interesting and ominous message… that BTCUSD its current low volatility state, is likely to break out or breakdown hard, probably the latter; as the technical indicators MACD & Volume Divergence suggests.
BTCUSD finds itself in a triangle and had recently spent most of its time in the upper half of the triangle (supported by the red line level) as its volatility tapered down into October. In the past two weeks, BTCUSD flirted between just below 19K and just above 19.6K. Price activity in this relatively tighter range is like a squeeze and an explosive action tends to follow.
Thus far, the technical indicators point towards a breakdown of support(s) as the price failed the Dow trending 34EMA multiple times, MACD just crossed down its Signal line, and the Volume Divergence had already crossed down multiple times (correctly indicating the imminent failure of each 34EMA test).
A strong breakdown is expected, first to breach the intra-triangle support (red) line and then the triangle support (thicker red) line.
To invalidate this, BTCUSD would need to break out of the triangle strongly instead, and remain outside of the triangle.
Notably, there has been much talk and hype about the on-chain analyses etc. which somewhat points to the bottoming of BTCUSD. While not disputing the data, notwithstanding a possible spike or break down is possible before a rally resumes proper.
IMHO, I would be a little cautious and looking for a nice higher Low, at the very least. That’s just my first point of risk and expectations management.
Have a good weekend ahead!
BTCUSD finds itself in a triangle and had recently spent most of its time in the upper half of the triangle (supported by the red line level) as its volatility tapered down into October. In the past two weeks, BTCUSD flirted between just below 19K and just above 19.6K. Price activity in this relatively tighter range is like a squeeze and an explosive action tends to follow.
Thus far, the technical indicators point towards a breakdown of support(s) as the price failed the Dow trending 34EMA multiple times, MACD just crossed down its Signal line, and the Volume Divergence had already crossed down multiple times (correctly indicating the imminent failure of each 34EMA test).
A strong breakdown is expected, first to breach the intra-triangle support (red) line and then the triangle support (thicker red) line.
To invalidate this, BTCUSD would need to break out of the triangle strongly instead, and remain outside of the triangle.
Notably, there has been much talk and hype about the on-chain analyses etc. which somewhat points to the bottoming of BTCUSD. While not disputing the data, notwithstanding a possible spike or break down is possible before a rally resumes proper.
IMHO, I would be a little cautious and looking for a nice higher Low, at the very least. That’s just my first point of risk and expectations management.
Have a good weekend ahead!
