Will 90k Hold Bitcoin?
Alright, so we couldn't quite tag 100k. Not surprising. 100k is huge psychological resistance and we can now see from on-chain data that long-term hodl'ers, which is defined as anyone who hodls BTC for 6+ months, have started to sell more rapidly as we approached that price point. So, we got our pullback as expected. Now, the question is how far down do we go? Will 90k hold us? Or will we go lower? Let's explore these questions a bit in this post using some basic technical analysis combined with our knowledge of past historical price action at the beginning of a bull run.
First, let's review where some of these trendlines on my chart actually come from.
That pink ascending trendline was made by connecting the wick top in April of '21 to the wick top in November of '21 and then extending it out infinitely to the right. In my last post, I stated that it would act as resistance. It did. But I also was unsure that it would hold us below for more than a few days. It didn't. There was enough hype in the market to break us to the upside. Now that same line should act as support. I would expect it to hold us up at least through Thanksgiving weekend here in the U.S. This may give altcoins enough time for one final pump.
And as long as Bitcoin decides to remain above that line, altcoins should continue to shine.
But, if Bitcoin's price decides to break below our trendline (I estimate that this will not occur until after this weekend), then altcoins will pull back more drastically as Bitcoin descends further.
So, if Bitcoin breaks below 90k, where will it go?
My guess will be that we drop to that second pink trendline below us somewhere around 75-76k. That trendline was drawn similarly to the way I drew the upper pink trendline. I drew a line from the wick high of November '21 to the wick of our most recent high of March this year. I then extended the line to the right. You can see from the chart that this was also a significant trendline because once the price broke above it, it sent, confirming the significance of the trendline.
Now, the rationale for my timeline and potential drop increments includes the fact that markets tend to stay optimistic over the holidays here in the U.S., especially when we are in the beginning stages of another bull run. And that we are. Therefore, if we do drop further, I wouldn't expect this to occur until after Thanksgiving weekend.
In bull runs, it is quite common to see 20%+ pullbacks while we move up. A drop to 76k would meet this historical pattern.
Again, I don't have high conviction that we actually will drop to 76k, therefore, I am not shorting. But I am a bit softer on the longs at this point and have all my stops at appropriate placement. Subs, check the tracker for those details. My current stable holding is around 40%.
Let's see how this all plays out.
✌️ Stew
BTW, I haven't mentioned it in this post, but my year-end target is now 102-109k. And yes, even with any pullback, I still believe we'll get there. I'll write more about this in a future post.
First, let's review where some of these trendlines on my chart actually come from.
That pink ascending trendline was made by connecting the wick top in April of '21 to the wick top in November of '21 and then extending it out infinitely to the right. In my last post, I stated that it would act as resistance. It did. But I also was unsure that it would hold us below for more than a few days. It didn't. There was enough hype in the market to break us to the upside. Now that same line should act as support. I would expect it to hold us up at least through Thanksgiving weekend here in the U.S. This may give altcoins enough time for one final pump.
And as long as Bitcoin decides to remain above that line, altcoins should continue to shine.
But, if Bitcoin's price decides to break below our trendline (I estimate that this will not occur until after this weekend), then altcoins will pull back more drastically as Bitcoin descends further.
So, if Bitcoin breaks below 90k, where will it go?
My guess will be that we drop to that second pink trendline below us somewhere around 75-76k. That trendline was drawn similarly to the way I drew the upper pink trendline. I drew a line from the wick high of November '21 to the wick of our most recent high of March this year. I then extended the line to the right. You can see from the chart that this was also a significant trendline because once the price broke above it, it sent, confirming the significance of the trendline.
Now, the rationale for my timeline and potential drop increments includes the fact that markets tend to stay optimistic over the holidays here in the U.S., especially when we are in the beginning stages of another bull run. And that we are. Therefore, if we do drop further, I wouldn't expect this to occur until after Thanksgiving weekend.
In bull runs, it is quite common to see 20%+ pullbacks while we move up. A drop to 76k would meet this historical pattern.
Again, I don't have high conviction that we actually will drop to 76k, therefore, I am not shorting. But I am a bit softer on the longs at this point and have all my stops at appropriate placement. Subs, check the tracker for those details. My current stable holding is around 40%.
Let's see how this all plays out.
✌️ Stew
BTW, I haven't mentioned it in this post, but my year-end target is now 102-109k. And yes, even with any pullback, I still believe we'll get there. I'll write more about this in a future post.
Nota
Bitcoin held above 90k. Memecoins followed by classic alts continued to pump. And now BTC is targeting 109k before the year end. We should see one more cycle before institutional money begins to pull. The cycle is BTC pumps one last time (underway), followed by SOL and SOL based memecoins (coming soon), other memecoins and memecoins chains, and then one more final pump for classic alts. A local top may then finally be in.
Stewdamus Trades -
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Crypto predictions, targets, how-tos, and much, much more!
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Prophesying the price action of markets one chart at a time.
Crypto predictions, targets, how-tos, and much, much more!
Never miss a prophecy. Sign up for my free newsletter at:
stewdam.us
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