Bitcoin - Ranging Before Halving

Bitcoin - Ranging Before Halving

I believe Bitcoin will find it hard to break above the 49.1k resistance or fall below the 37.3k support before the halving on 18th Apr 2024
(70 days from now)

▫️ We have initial underside support from the 100 day which will likely align with the POC eventually at 43.5k

▫️ Then we have historic support at 37.3k which aligns with the approx. 200 day MA once it catches up.

Anything can happen but I believe we are stuck between these ranges until just before the halving occurs days 63 - Day 70 (11 Apr - 18 Apr).

We still have not had a c.30% typical drawdown on BTC price since this bull run started which is overdue. Such a move would put us down around 30k where price would meet the 200 week MA. Right now this seems implausible but we have to remember that in a typical Bitcoin bull market a 30% drawdown is normal behavior, thus if we definitively lose the 37.3k level, the $30-31k should be expected and not surprising, and not necessarily long term bearish either. This does not mean it will happen, it is just a level to be aware and a perspective to keep in mind. Whatever you do, NEVER EVER sell on capitulation, sell before or well after it on your OWN terms, not the markets. This is a really important key thing to understand as a trader.

We are very bullish at present and a bounce off the 100 day MA has been a great support twice in this BTC bull run so far confirming the upward trajectory. The 100 day is a key initial support to watch, if it starts turning over or is lost we should be thinking this is the first time its been lost since Oct 2023 thus a larger correction could be presumed.

I hope the above can help frame and structure your trade.

PUKA