Bitcoin 10K Dumps, completing ABC?
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Have been updating in my public channel on Bitcoin past weeks, summary was, it's has become a crap market lately. Something i wrote, my personal quote on Bitcoin :)
I never really liked the phrase:
“Bitcoin, store of value”
I think a better one would be:
“ Bitcoin, a store/shop for whales”
They can shop around and buy $ with their bitcoins
Just going to continue from my update there, nothing important for what i am writing here now. Since it's mostly random and not really connected.
Maybe things are becoming bit more clear now. Must say, yesterday it looked bit bullish, with that consolidation at 9700/800 before that pump, wanted to post about it like i did before the previous pump, but was afraid for shit moves. It makes me look like an idiot as well when making a prediction and then getting crap moves like this. Many don't understand that TA is just a tool and that we are at the mercy of the big boys.
Anyway, it seems the daily chart might give the real picture, when taking out all the wicks. It's an uptrend, but it stays glued to it, which is not really a sign of strength. So this time, if i had to gamble, i would look down, where past week up had bigger odds.
To keep it simple, i would say, if the 4h candle closes below 9700ish, good chance the daily candle will close below that trend line as well. Now obviously no guarantees, that has become clear lately, doesn't get more random than this, but it should give a sell signal if it happens.
Now as i kept saying past 2 weeks or so, the 9300ish is the key level to me. As long as that doesn't break, bulls have a good chance to keep up trend intact. If it breaks, depends on the dump what will happen. I think, even in mid-term bull scenario, a shake out move to like 9100/8000 is still possible (after the failed attempts of 10K lately). Now if we break 9300ish, and get like a 300/500 points dump, the shake out will probably be even bigger. If 9300 breaks and we see a small drop to lets say 9100, it could be done already.
Upside, think a daily close above 10.000 could give a bullish signal. Don't think they will do a fake move again. Of course, don't want to see it rally above 10K like an hour before the daily close.
On the right we can see that line, it broke above it but has come back down completely, which usually is a bearish sign. That's why i don't like the current setup in combo with the daily chart. Don't know if i mentioned it here on TV, but that failed breakout of 10K (yellow circle), is normally a huge sell signal. But because price didn't dump but held and kept crawling slowly up, i was giving bulls better odds, but slightly because of that. That failed breakout never completed a real ABC, so maybe that is what has been going on all along past week or so. All this crap move is just wave B (correctional) so we get that wave C in the form of that shake out wave i mentioned above.
So bulls want to hold 9800, below it i would be careful, think only real thing might be a close below 9700ish. So 9700/9800 might be like neutral, above 9800 bullish and below 9700 bearish.
Don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
I never really liked the phrase:
“Bitcoin, store of value”
I think a better one would be:
“ Bitcoin, a store/shop for whales”
They can shop around and buy $ with their bitcoins
Just going to continue from my update there, nothing important for what i am writing here now. Since it's mostly random and not really connected.
Maybe things are becoming bit more clear now. Must say, yesterday it looked bit bullish, with that consolidation at 9700/800 before that pump, wanted to post about it like i did before the previous pump, but was afraid for shit moves. It makes me look like an idiot as well when making a prediction and then getting crap moves like this. Many don't understand that TA is just a tool and that we are at the mercy of the big boys.
Anyway, it seems the daily chart might give the real picture, when taking out all the wicks. It's an uptrend, but it stays glued to it, which is not really a sign of strength. So this time, if i had to gamble, i would look down, where past week up had bigger odds.
To keep it simple, i would say, if the 4h candle closes below 9700ish, good chance the daily candle will close below that trend line as well. Now obviously no guarantees, that has become clear lately, doesn't get more random than this, but it should give a sell signal if it happens.
Now as i kept saying past 2 weeks or so, the 9300ish is the key level to me. As long as that doesn't break, bulls have a good chance to keep up trend intact. If it breaks, depends on the dump what will happen. I think, even in mid-term bull scenario, a shake out move to like 9100/8000 is still possible (after the failed attempts of 10K lately). Now if we break 9300ish, and get like a 300/500 points dump, the shake out will probably be even bigger. If 9300 breaks and we see a small drop to lets say 9100, it could be done already.
Upside, think a daily close above 10.000 could give a bullish signal. Don't think they will do a fake move again. Of course, don't want to see it rally above 10K like an hour before the daily close.
On the right we can see that line, it broke above it but has come back down completely, which usually is a bearish sign. That's why i don't like the current setup in combo with the daily chart. Don't know if i mentioned it here on TV, but that failed breakout of 10K (yellow circle), is normally a huge sell signal. But because price didn't dump but held and kept crawling slowly up, i was giving bulls better odds, but slightly because of that. That failed breakout never completed a real ABC, so maybe that is what has been going on all along past week or so. All this crap move is just wave B (correctional) so we get that wave C in the form of that shake out wave i mentioned above.
So bulls want to hold 9800, below it i would be careful, think only real thing might be a close below 9700ish. So 9700/9800 might be like neutral, above 9800 bullish and below 9700 bearish.
Don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
Nota
Wow, i am seriously amazed to see that this market can make some normal movements. Now it's clear, the crap we saw past week was correctional and today another big move down. This still doesn't answer the big question. Was the rally to 10K the start of a trend or still just a correction upwards. I don't dare to give an answer on that yet. We would need like a 1K dump day at least i think to become very bearish, so for now i am just assuming it's a bigger correction on the rally. Now, most of you know i am NOT and Elliot Wave guy, but i do use the general 3 wave or 5 waves, i don't make any exact counts, just doesn't work for me. Anyway, the ABC is playing out almost perfectly so far, but it looks like it's not done yet. Think as long as we stay below the 9450ish the coming hours, very big chance we see at least one more wave down. When looking at the previous dump, using that size, we could drop towards like 8900ish. As long as we stay above that level, good chance it's a basic ABC and we continue up again. If the drop becomes bigger, then bulls should be become a bit more careful.
As i kept saying past days, if the 9300ish breaks, we should see a big drop of like 300/500. That has not happened yet, so based on that i am carefully thinking that maybe the bulls are in control and are simply waiting for a nice price to get in again (which should be around the 8900). But, if we would see a drop which has the same size of today (9800-9100=700 points), than it's a VERY big chance we are in a bear trend.
So, up to 8900ish, is still bullish i think, but then the drop should go in steps and not a fast volume drop. If we see a 500 point dump, but fast, bulls have to be VERY careful i think. If we see a 700+ point drop, think the trend for coming weeks or longer might become bearish again.
Now i listen to what many of vips tell me about fundamentals that have improved enormously lately. I have always ignored fundamentals about bitcoin because i always assumed it was a bunch of crap (no real value) and it has always proven to be so. But this time, i must say, there are some real changes. However, i do not understand why it has such a hard time to break that 10K then? I mentioned this a few times past weeks, why is it taking so long to break it, even with a surge in new accounts at crypto brokers (so assuming a lot of new retail money has come in the market lately) and still not being able to pump.
Nota
Breakout level is around 9600, which is an important level for the bulls to break. The blue line i have drawn, is a worst case scenario for the bulls. Would mean a slow move up towards the 9500/600 coming week, but then see a big drop with that 1K+ daily candle and going through the 8600ish. As long as that doesn't happen, bulls have a decent chance. You can see today's candle broke that up trend line with decent volume, but nothing big though. So that doesn't say a lot yet. The yellow circles being examples of bad daily candles.
Nota
And it looks as if things have changed already. Mentioned in the beginning, a shake to 9100/8000, where the minimum was reached yesterday. Despite the strong bounce from the low, would have thought to see one more wave down. I did give a max of 9450ish, which we are at now, but it's hanging there for a few hours now, flagging even, which is normally a sign that it wants to break. We can see we have a similar move now with 10 days ago. But then it was a long squeeze and this time it went in steps, but so far that doesnt seem to matter.
Also looks as if it's doing that 3 step thing i have showed a few times past year. So would say, as long as it doesn't break 9300ish, we could see at least one more step up. On the upside, think 9600ish is the max for the bears. So think we have a range of 9600 and 9300. With above 9400 think bulls are in favor (short term at least) and below it being neutral up to 9300/350.
If we do break up, that retest from the previous update, is all what the bears have left i think.
Nota
Alts are bouncing up quite strong as well, similar to bitcoin. But, still all below big resistances though. Think of those break there (these are examples), then maybe the bull shake out is already over. Nota
Bitcoin seems to be influenced once again by the stock market. Follow it's direction a bit again. When assuming we are still in a similar stage, this drop could be a tiny shake out like we had then as well (red circle). Why i said bears need a drop below 9300ish, because then i think it would be different.
Nota
So far looks like its still follow that pattern from 10 days ago. Now a super obvious inverse H&S, with double resistance, just broke up, but was watching it a few min, no volume at all, also no sell volume, which is a bit weird. Maybe it means nothing, dunno, not like Bitcoin is following any TA rules lately. Target is around 9550, if it fails to reach it, sign of weakness, if it breaks it, we could see an attack of the bigger resistance zone. Think if that red zone breaks (9600/700), the shake out is probably over and we should then continue to move higher. First lets see if this IH&S plays out or fails
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