We're in a fairy tale, in a magic kingdom where Bitcoin is climbing a huge wedge up to the cloud with the help of Tinkerbell. The charming young fairy was late to the party to save Bitcoin earlier due to a severe crisis in Pixie Hollow. The Home Tree in the very heart of Pixie Hollow in Neverland was accidentally set on fire, so she just couldn't be in two places at once and expresses her deepest sincere apologies in this matter. Now she pumps pixie dust all over the place to undo the damage if it's still even possible.
Apparently Bitcoin is now in the business of building huge imaginary wedges, and you, my dear reader, are one of the few select ones to first see it in real flesh. Watch with your own eyes how it's done - with a magical pixie dust pump that lasted for hours, of course. Especially if you don't believe in fairies. Use bitcoinity to measure the price pressure during pump. Never underestimate the power of one little fairy - it's amazing what they can do. Now I won't be surprised at all if one of those magnificent menacing sky rising wedges will pop up at some time even on the Weekly. That's how the market makers play traders and kill both bulls and bears. Traders expect a wave 3 and buy, but instead they get a 500 move down, a giant wedge pattern and a 500 move back up after they have already sold at the bottom. And those market maker whales - they play by the book - all rules are still respected.
This means the following for Bitcoin:
1) We are still in a wave 5 of up trend, because we haven't invalidated 11065 level. The whole wave 5 from 9300 has become a rising ending wedge with possible targets 11750-12000.
We have a bearish wedge and it should break down at some point.
There are no clear rules to estimate the height of the wedge. An ending wedge is the last impulse of the trend. It can only exist in waves 5 or C.
Wave 5 does not need to breach the previous ATH 11750 of wave 3 to remain valid. It will just be a truncated wave 5.
However, with enough pump it can go past 11750 to a psychological level 12000. In theory it can even reach 12400 (100% of wave 1) but that's not likely.
Wave 5 can be 61.8% of wave 1 (11200) but we're past that level. And we won't reach 161.8% of wave 1 (14350) due to contracting wedge channels.
We could also have another ending wedge within the last wave of the giant wedge, its channels can still adjust.
Although it usually does, leg e does not need to reach the upper channel of the wedge - it will still be a valid wedge with truncated wave e.
So, we can expect a move up to 11750-12000 within a few days and an ABC correction to wave 4 bottom territory of 9300.
But Bitcoin can also start to move down at any point (for instance from a local top of 11600).
Another crisis is due in Pixie Hollow any time soon and Tinkerbell will be needed elsewhere to save some PixieCoin, or she'll simply run out of dust for the moment.
2) We could also be in a huge wave (3), but we have a contracting ending wedge (not expanding leading wedge), which usually marks the end of the trend or correction, not the beginning of it.
However, since we're in a fairy tale, then who knows, maybe the whales will invent a new type of contracting leading wedge that starts a huge wave 3 and breaks upwards.
Or we could make a new low and the wedge channels will adjust and become an upper channel of up trend. Not likely.
3) We've broken out of WXYXZ correction channel, but we might still need to break out of it on log.
If we still are in a correction then the whole wedge wave needs to be an failed impulse X that consists of 3 waves.
And we have already breached 11500 (end of wedge wave c), making a new high 11600.
We could still be in a correction until we breach 11750 (start of correction) even if leg e completes the wedge at some point.
Scenario 1 seems more probable now.
Good Luck!
Please don't trade based on my analysis only. This is not a financial advice, I'm not responsible for your losses.
Apparently Bitcoin is now in the business of building huge imaginary wedges, and you, my dear reader, are one of the few select ones to first see it in real flesh. Watch with your own eyes how it's done - with a magical pixie dust pump that lasted for hours, of course. Especially if you don't believe in fairies. Use bitcoinity to measure the price pressure during pump. Never underestimate the power of one little fairy - it's amazing what they can do. Now I won't be surprised at all if one of those magnificent menacing sky rising wedges will pop up at some time even on the Weekly. That's how the market makers play traders and kill both bulls and bears. Traders expect a wave 3 and buy, but instead they get a 500 move down, a giant wedge pattern and a 500 move back up after they have already sold at the bottom. And those market maker whales - they play by the book - all rules are still respected.
This means the following for Bitcoin:
1) We are still in a wave 5 of up trend, because we haven't invalidated 11065 level. The whole wave 5 from 9300 has become a rising ending wedge with possible targets 11750-12000.
We have a bearish wedge and it should break down at some point.
There are no clear rules to estimate the height of the wedge. An ending wedge is the last impulse of the trend. It can only exist in waves 5 or C.
Wave 5 does not need to breach the previous ATH 11750 of wave 3 to remain valid. It will just be a truncated wave 5.
However, with enough pump it can go past 11750 to a psychological level 12000. In theory it can even reach 12400 (100% of wave 1) but that's not likely.
Wave 5 can be 61.8% of wave 1 (11200) but we're past that level. And we won't reach 161.8% of wave 1 (14350) due to contracting wedge channels.
We could also have another ending wedge within the last wave of the giant wedge, its channels can still adjust.
Although it usually does, leg e does not need to reach the upper channel of the wedge - it will still be a valid wedge with truncated wave e.
So, we can expect a move up to 11750-12000 within a few days and an ABC correction to wave 4 bottom territory of 9300.
But Bitcoin can also start to move down at any point (for instance from a local top of 11600).
Another crisis is due in Pixie Hollow any time soon and Tinkerbell will be needed elsewhere to save some PixieCoin, or she'll simply run out of dust for the moment.
2) We could also be in a huge wave (3), but we have a contracting ending wedge (not expanding leading wedge), which usually marks the end of the trend or correction, not the beginning of it.
However, since we're in a fairy tale, then who knows, maybe the whales will invent a new type of contracting leading wedge that starts a huge wave 3 and breaks upwards.
Or we could make a new low and the wedge channels will adjust and become an upper channel of up trend. Not likely.
3) We've broken out of WXYXZ correction channel, but we might still need to break out of it on log.
If we still are in a correction then the whole wedge wave needs to be an failed impulse X that consists of 3 waves.
And we have already breached 11500 (end of wedge wave c), making a new high 11600.
We could still be in a correction until we breach 11750 (start of correction) even if leg e completes the wedge at some point.
Scenario 1 seems more probable now.
Good Luck!
Please don't trade based on my analysis only. This is not a financial advice, I'm not responsible for your losses.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.