#202435 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoin
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
bitcoin: I was neutral last week and until Friday that was perfectly fine. Bulls just used the overall market strength to break above and finally closed above 62000 again. They closed the bear gap which was the only good argument the bears had left. Market is free to test 68000 or higher. Bears would need a strong reversal and trade below 60200 for this to stop. Bullish.
Quote from last week:
comment: I still think the pattern last week was bearish enough but the reversal by the bulls just stronger. Surprised me but that’s why I give clear invalidation prices. Losing is part of the game, get good at it. Bulls are now favored to trade higher and potential targets are first 66000 and then 68000. Bears would need a pullback below 60200 for this to fail. I do expect a pullback first before higher prices but I don’t think bears can get below 62000. Only if many other markets also puke.
current market cycle: Trading Range
key levels: 60000 - 68000
bull case: Bulls strongly broke above 62000 and closed the bear gap. They are now in control since they also stayed at the highs. 66000 and then 68000 are my first targets. Any pullback should stay above 62000. Will only buy this on a pullback and not above 63000.
Invalidation is below 60200.
bear case: Bears had a decent breakout last week but fumbled it. Bears can be happy if they can keep the market below 65000 and go sideways. The next bigger resistance is the bear trend line from the ath at 69000.
Invalidation is above 56000.
outlook last week:
→ Last Sunday we traded around 59700 and now we are at 64200. Wrong outlook. I think it was a surprise by the bulls but it does not matter. Bulls are favored for more upside now.
short term: Can only be bullish after the breakout with follow through. 68000 is a decent target but I want a pullback first.
medium-long term: I have been writing about getting down to 50000 for many many weeks now and since we are only 3500 points above it, it’s time to review my medium-long term take. I do think we are doing a very similar thing to 2021. Market will probably touch the monthly 20ema at 46000 soon and then go for a dead cat bounce. I do not think market can do a higher high again. For me it’s lower highs from here on and highest I think it can get again is 65000 but I do think there is a good chance, 63000 may be all bulls can get again. If it trades strongly below 46000, probably 30000 soon after but let’s make 46000 first and then I reevaluate my take.
Update: Above was written 2024-08-04. As good as it gets. Next target is 40000. —unchanged since July
current swing trade: None.
chart update: Removed the bear gap and added bull trend lines.
tl;dr
bitcoin: I was neutral last week and until Friday that was perfectly fine. Bulls just used the overall market strength to break above and finally closed above 62000 again. They closed the bear gap which was the only good argument the bears had left. Market is free to test 68000 or higher. Bears would need a strong reversal and trade below 60200 for this to stop. Bullish.
Quote from last week:
comment: I am not making stuff up here now. Market is also neutral as can be. Last week was 58700 and now we are at 59700. Tails above and below bars and bulls still could not close one day above the daily ema. Wait for a breakout.
comment: I still think the pattern last week was bearish enough but the reversal by the bulls just stronger. Surprised me but that’s why I give clear invalidation prices. Losing is part of the game, get good at it. Bulls are now favored to trade higher and potential targets are first 66000 and then 68000. Bears would need a pullback below 60200 for this to fail. I do expect a pullback first before higher prices but I don’t think bears can get below 62000. Only if many other markets also puke.
current market cycle: Trading Range
key levels: 60000 - 68000
bull case: Bulls strongly broke above 62000 and closed the bear gap. They are now in control since they also stayed at the highs. 66000 and then 68000 are my first targets. Any pullback should stay above 62000. Will only buy this on a pullback and not above 63000.
Invalidation is below 60200.
bear case: Bears had a decent breakout last week but fumbled it. Bears can be happy if they can keep the market below 65000 and go sideways. The next bigger resistance is the bear trend line from the ath at 69000.
Invalidation is above 56000.
outlook last week:
short term: Full bear mode again after the pullback. Want to see 50000 again and a daily close around it.
→ Last Sunday we traded around 59700 and now we are at 64200. Wrong outlook. I think it was a surprise by the bulls but it does not matter. Bulls are favored for more upside now.
short term: Can only be bullish after the breakout with follow through. 68000 is a decent target but I want a pullback first.
medium-long term: I have been writing about getting down to 50000 for many many weeks now and since we are only 3500 points above it, it’s time to review my medium-long term take. I do think we are doing a very similar thing to 2021. Market will probably touch the monthly 20ema at 46000 soon and then go for a dead cat bounce. I do not think market can do a higher high again. For me it’s lower highs from here on and highest I think it can get again is 65000 but I do think there is a good chance, 63000 may be all bulls can get again. If it trades strongly below 46000, probably 30000 soon after but let’s make 46000 first and then I reevaluate my take.
Update: Above was written 2024-08-04. As good as it gets. Next target is 40000. —unchanged since July
current swing trade: None.
chart update: Removed the bear gap and added bull trend lines.
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