bitcoin miner capitulation
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The analysis is based on the price floor of bitcoin production in China
in these calculations only power consumption is considered to achieve the lowest possible state and we Ignore other expenses such as hardware costs and maintenance , etc...
The purpose is to examine the impact of mining on bitcoin price
Some believe that if the miners leave the network, difficulty will be adjust and the network will return to normal. This is completely wrong
Imagine an example that, like the recent bitcoin drop, price fall below $ 2000 in one day. In this case, the majority of miners turn off their hardwares , hashrate will drop a lot , Because of this, block time goes up dramatically
Network difficulty is adjusted once every 2016 block (2 weeks with 10 min block time ) , So when the block time goes up , We should be involved in tuning the network difficulty for about a month or more , It can be said that the network will be severely disrupted , Whether in terms of transaction fees or in terms of transaction speed and confirmation of transactions
It also makes that The speed of bitcoin delivery to the market Go down sharply , That can be a factor in raising price
So the market always reacts to certain price levels , So miners don't get out of the network quickly
here is top 2019 asics the average electricity price for dry season in china is ~ 5 cent for large farms ( + mw ) :
formula : Days to create 1 btc * daily electricity cost = electricity cost of creating 1 btc
antminer S17+ 73: ( 3.50 * 833.7 ) = 2917 $
antminerS17+ 67: ( 3.22 * 895.32 ) = 2882 $
antminer T17+ 55TH : ( 3.30 * 1106.52 ) = 3651
innosilicon T3+ pro 67: ( 3.96 * 908.33) = 3596 $
Avalon 1166 68 : ( 3.84 * 894.98) = 3436 $
whatsminer M20S 65: ( 3.74 * 936.28 ) = 3501 $
antminer S9 SE 17TH : ( 1.63 * 3579.91) = 5833 $
2020 upcoming asics :
Antminer S19 Pro 110 Th/s 3250w
Days to create 1 btc * daily electricity cost
590.87 * 3.90 = 2304 ( china dry season )
Whatsminer M30 88Th/s 3344 w
738.59 * 4.01 = 2961 ( china dry season )
After halving cost will be *2 because number of days to create 1 btc will be double
so i showed how levels will be after halving on the chart , even 2020 asics suggests that price should stay up after halving
You can read more about how the electricity cost is calculated and US cost calculation at google docs link below ,
google docs
i believe that usa is big part of miners , as you know bitmain also launched +50 mw farm in texas
in these calculations only power consumption is considered to achieve the lowest possible state and we Ignore other expenses such as hardware costs and maintenance , etc...
The purpose is to examine the impact of mining on bitcoin price
Some believe that if the miners leave the network, difficulty will be adjust and the network will return to normal. This is completely wrong
Imagine an example that, like the recent bitcoin drop, price fall below $ 2000 in one day. In this case, the majority of miners turn off their hardwares , hashrate will drop a lot , Because of this, block time goes up dramatically
Network difficulty is adjusted once every 2016 block (2 weeks with 10 min block time ) , So when the block time goes up , We should be involved in tuning the network difficulty for about a month or more , It can be said that the network will be severely disrupted , Whether in terms of transaction fees or in terms of transaction speed and confirmation of transactions
It also makes that The speed of bitcoin delivery to the market Go down sharply , That can be a factor in raising price
So the market always reacts to certain price levels , So miners don't get out of the network quickly
here is top 2019 asics the average electricity price for dry season in china is ~ 5 cent for large farms ( + mw ) :
formula : Days to create 1 btc * daily electricity cost = electricity cost of creating 1 btc
antminer S17+ 73: ( 3.50 * 833.7 ) = 2917 $
antminerS17+ 67: ( 3.22 * 895.32 ) = 2882 $
antminer T17+ 55TH : ( 3.30 * 1106.52 ) = 3651
innosilicon T3+ pro 67: ( 3.96 * 908.33) = 3596 $
Avalon 1166 68 : ( 3.84 * 894.98) = 3436 $
whatsminer M20S 65: ( 3.74 * 936.28 ) = 3501 $
antminer S9 SE 17TH : ( 1.63 * 3579.91) = 5833 $
2020 upcoming asics :
Antminer S19 Pro 110 Th/s 3250w
Days to create 1 btc * daily electricity cost
590.87 * 3.90 = 2304 ( china dry season )
Whatsminer M30 88Th/s 3344 w
738.59 * 4.01 = 2961 ( china dry season )
After halving cost will be *2 because number of days to create 1 btc will be double
so i showed how levels will be after halving on the chart , even 2020 asics suggests that price should stay up after halving
You can read more about how the electricity cost is calculated and US cost calculation at google docs link below ,
google docs
i believe that usa is big part of miners , as you know bitmain also launched +50 mw farm in texas
Nota
<a href="imgur.com/wUCGNQZ"><img src="i.imgur.com/wUCGNQZ.png" title="source: imgur.com" /></a>the price is exactly following my idea
now i think we will touch bottom line of mining via 2 senarios (after halving )
first senario is red one around 7000 range
second senario is blue one around 5700 range
2020 asics have bottom range of 5500-6000
once we touch these areas we start new bull trend
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