Looking at the 4h chart we see that BTC very smoothly bounced of the neckline of the inverse head & shoulder formation and seems to be on its way to form the ending shoulder. So I'd expect BTC to go down to levels similar to the lows of the left shoulder, most likely retracing all the way down to the red trend line . I'm saying most likely because its definitely not guaranteed given that the 21 EMA might act as support although when looking at the recent past the 21 EMA seems to be of little relevance. I definitely see BTC going below the 8k mark again while completing the right shoulder. Another factor that indicates that a small correction is needed is the elliot wave count. The waves 1-5 have been completed at the low of the Head formation and with BTC rallying back up to the neckline, the first step of the ABC-correction is done. Looking back at the start of the elliot wave on 12.3 we see that for now BTC perfectly moved as suggested by elliot wave theory. Wave 2 retraced to the .618 Fibo of wave 1, followed by a strong 2nd impulse wave all the way down to the red trendline and forming the left shoulder. Wave 4 retraced pretty much exactly to the .5 Fibo of wave 3 and the last impulse wave (wave 5) ended with a momentum divergence, implying the start of the correction. Wave A of the correction suggests we are experiencing a flat 3-3-5 ABC correction. And since wave B of a flat 3-3-5 correction usually retraces around 90% of wave 1, again, I see BTC going all the way down to the red trend line , maybe even temporarily breaking it as we've seen it at the end of wave 5. When BTC completed wave B, the next target obviously would be the neckline of the H&S formation which also lies exactly at the .618 Fibo of wave AB (assuming wave B ends where indicated on the graph). In my opinion, BTC will not only break through the neckline but also start a rally towards the upper red trend line where it most likely will be rejected again. I think so because for me the timing of an outbreak to the upside of the red highlighted triangle just doesnt seem right yet, but clearly I could be wrong too which I would also wouldn't mind as a big supporter of cryptocurrencies and BTC. Thus, I believe we will see one final rejection of the triangle formation, maybe even bouncing off back to the lower red trend line , before finally breaking out the seemingly never-ending triangle formation and slowly making our way back to new highs.
Now in the for me personally less likely case that BTC abandons the H&S formation and retraces more than the low of the head, the next target would be the white trend line all the way at the bottom of the graph. If that happens we have to carefully watch. If BTC breaks through that line, I don't see the bear market ending any time soon but rather getting worse and we might see a new low since the one on february 6th.
Now in the for me personally less likely case that BTC abandons the H&S formation and retraces more than the low of the head, the next target would be the white trend line all the way at the bottom of the graph. If that happens we have to carefully watch. If BTC breaks through that line, I don't see the bear market ending any time soon but rather getting worse and we might see a new low since the one on february 6th.
Nota
Nota
thats my daily chart view reaching back until October (log chart), in case anyone wondered
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Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.