BTC 11/4/20 daily close update
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Fellow traders!
First off if you found ANY of this useful, GIVE MY IDEAS A LIKE!
Let's dive right in.
So in my previous idea today, we saw a candle with high volume and a long wick to the top. These are usually dead giveaways for either a retracement or a full on reversal. What is shows is the commitment of buyers to go higher.
As we can see in the candle that made a double top, there was barely any volume to it, and the price quickly tumbled. It was an important tell, because it re-affirmed that buyers are not willing to buy, they are more willing to sell here, and most importantly we didn't make a higher high!
To me, this is more likely to be just another swing low situation. We do know that overall, the trend DOES remain upward (so far). Fib retracements give us a general idea of where price may go, so we can see what price we are going to be watching for VOLUME!
For us to have a successful retracement back towards the topside, we will be short up until we see a candle with (preferably) a wick that is at least 50% of it's overall length with fairly HIGH volume. Now, I will tell you all this, that a candle with high volume and a wick that is 50% of its overall length is not always going to be there during a reversal/retracement. Some candles will just have a long body and high volume, but those are somewhat rare. But this time, we saw an OBVIOUS tell tale sign of a moment change, a candle that is almost all top wick and enormous volume! That's a usual tell-tale sign.
Expect to be bouncing around in a small range here to attract long traders and crate a bull-trap, but ultimately, unless we see some mighty high volume up here (unlikely), we "SHOULD" not see a higher high.
IF, and only IF we see price make a higher high, we stop loss, rethink and readjust.
Another thing to quickly add here, is the obvious bearish RSI divergence. We have RSI making a lower high, while price made a higher high. This signals bearishness ahead.
First off if you found ANY of this useful, GIVE MY IDEAS A LIKE!
Let's dive right in.
So in my previous idea today, we saw a candle with high volume and a long wick to the top. These are usually dead giveaways for either a retracement or a full on reversal. What is shows is the commitment of buyers to go higher.
As we can see in the candle that made a double top, there was barely any volume to it, and the price quickly tumbled. It was an important tell, because it re-affirmed that buyers are not willing to buy, they are more willing to sell here, and most importantly we didn't make a higher high!
To me, this is more likely to be just another swing low situation. We do know that overall, the trend DOES remain upward (so far). Fib retracements give us a general idea of where price may go, so we can see what price we are going to be watching for VOLUME!
For us to have a successful retracement back towards the topside, we will be short up until we see a candle with (preferably) a wick that is at least 50% of it's overall length with fairly HIGH volume. Now, I will tell you all this, that a candle with high volume and a wick that is 50% of its overall length is not always going to be there during a reversal/retracement. Some candles will just have a long body and high volume, but those are somewhat rare. But this time, we saw an OBVIOUS tell tale sign of a moment change, a candle that is almost all top wick and enormous volume! That's a usual tell-tale sign.
Expect to be bouncing around in a small range here to attract long traders and crate a bull-trap, but ultimately, unless we see some mighty high volume up here (unlikely), we "SHOULD" not see a higher high.
IF, and only IF we see price make a higher high, we stop loss, rethink and readjust.
Another thing to quickly add here, is the obvious bearish RSI divergence. We have RSI making a lower high, while price made a higher high. This signals bearishness ahead.
Nota
Just a real quick update...I just wanted you guys to be aware as well that there is a 2nd scenario that is possible, not likely, but possible... It's that we retrace somewhat further...
Once again, fib retracements give us an insight into WHERE reversals COULD be. VOLUME gives us the the proof. So we need to wait for those two reversal price areas to see where we get that buying volume coming in.
Again... Ideally the candle we are looking for is a long wick on the bottom, very high volume...
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