BTC: Bearflag Continuation
In July we made an yearly high around at 31k and backtested the support of 2021-2022 as resistance
Since that high bitcoin ranged 2 months around 28k-31k having no signs of impulsivity
This tells me this is an distribution-fase before deviating away from this resistance
In late august after supply far exceeded demand, bitcoin had an large drop in matter of hours from the 28,5k and 12h 200 simple moving average
After this dorp the same behaviour, ranging, sideways price-action, as in july happend
At current time we had an bearish retest of the support that was broken in august for an support and resistance flip at 28,5k and the 12h 200 sma
This with the same distribution-behaviour whilst forming an bearflag-continuation pattern
A first trade to take is a possible retest of 12h 200 simple moving average as resistance to the bottom of the bearflag and 0.786 to 0.854 Fib retracement of the 25k low
Then the same ranging and sideways action is to be expected
A second trade to take is the next lower high or the breakout of the bearlfag
Possible next lower high backtesting the middle line as resistance and 0.5 fib retracement to 0.786 fib retracement
An head and shoulders could also be forming if price follow the fractal from july-august
Losing 25k (support since march) will also be a good indication a large drop will follow
Both stoplosses are above the resistance (previous support) of july-augst around 28,5 k and 12h 200 sma
The risk you take will depend on how close you can enter around this resistance
I believe the correction will end at the end of the year, some tax-selling could happen just before the end for fiscal reasons that could mark the bottom, but the bottom could also happen before in november/december
Since that high bitcoin ranged 2 months around 28k-31k having no signs of impulsivity
This tells me this is an distribution-fase before deviating away from this resistance
In late august after supply far exceeded demand, bitcoin had an large drop in matter of hours from the 28,5k and 12h 200 simple moving average
After this dorp the same behaviour, ranging, sideways price-action, as in july happend
At current time we had an bearish retest of the support that was broken in august for an support and resistance flip at 28,5k and the 12h 200 sma
This with the same distribution-behaviour whilst forming an bearflag-continuation pattern
A first trade to take is a possible retest of 12h 200 simple moving average as resistance to the bottom of the bearflag and 0.786 to 0.854 Fib retracement of the 25k low
Then the same ranging and sideways action is to be expected
A second trade to take is the next lower high or the breakout of the bearlfag
Possible next lower high backtesting the middle line as resistance and 0.5 fib retracement to 0.786 fib retracement
An head and shoulders could also be forming if price follow the fractal from july-august
Losing 25k (support since march) will also be a good indication a large drop will follow
Both stoplosses are above the resistance (previous support) of july-augst around 28,5 k and 12h 200 sma
The risk you take will depend on how close you can enter around this resistance
I believe the correction will end at the end of the year, some tax-selling could happen just before the end for fiscal reasons that could mark the bottom, but the bottom could also happen before in november/december
Nota
Speculating on an impulsive move below the monthly opening to the 0.786 and 0.854 Fib retracementTo correct the upside in an ABC correction for an indiscision candle on the monthly timeframe
To then have the breakout of the bearflag in november
until november this will be mostly again sideways, ranging price-action
Nota
Possible re-entry for the short during the weekend at the 0.618 Fib retracement Nota
Finding support on the 0.5 Fib retarcementExpecting an corrective bounce to the 0.5 Fib retracement for the weekly close
In this chart you can see the possibility for an complex correction aswell
Nota
If you lived in Turkey would you buy bitcoin?If you are bullish now, look at this chart
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