As from my previous idea, I am bearish on Bitcoin and still bearish. I have been long Bitcoin from 16,000, added at 25,000 and 26,000, but have decided to sell recently.
I have been in the markets since 2016, and after seeing prices rise and fall, I have began to develop a strong sense of market direction in the mid to long term. My analysis revealed a strong uptick in selling of Bitcoin by miners, more than 100m in the last month or so. The amount of Bitcoin inflow to exchanges has also seen a recent uptick.
Furthermore, there are significant sell walls created from 45,000 to 50,000. A lack of bid side liquidity is also noted.
That recent crash revealed that most players in this market are long, as proven by the decrease in open interest with the recent crash. However, we are in a supply zone, with most short positions closed due to the ETF overhang (as seen from current funding).
This combined makes me slightly more bearish than bullish on the market. It was not easy selling my position, but I could not fault myself for making this decision, as it was the best decision to make with the information available.
While the ETF is a positive event, and I believe the approval is most likely, that does not change the fact that the ETF creates short term demand, but long term demand is slower to catch up. Thus after the uptick, I am not confident the markets will continue higher.
I have been in the markets since 2016, and after seeing prices rise and fall, I have began to develop a strong sense of market direction in the mid to long term. My analysis revealed a strong uptick in selling of Bitcoin by miners, more than 100m in the last month or so. The amount of Bitcoin inflow to exchanges has also seen a recent uptick.
Furthermore, there are significant sell walls created from 45,000 to 50,000. A lack of bid side liquidity is also noted.
That recent crash revealed that most players in this market are long, as proven by the decrease in open interest with the recent crash. However, we are in a supply zone, with most short positions closed due to the ETF overhang (as seen from current funding).
This combined makes me slightly more bearish than bullish on the market. It was not easy selling my position, but I could not fault myself for making this decision, as it was the best decision to make with the information available.
While the ETF is a positive event, and I believe the approval is most likely, that does not change the fact that the ETF creates short term demand, but long term demand is slower to catch up. Thus after the uptick, I am not confident the markets will continue higher.
Nota
I wanted to update my idea to discuss randomness in markets.In smaller markets, one single person can dramatically influence price with their decision, whether their decision is profitable or not. Therefore smaller markets are random during regions of low liquidity. Your risk management must keep this randomness in mind.
I have seen multiple wicks on Bitcoin, with market buying to the tune of 80 million over 2 minutes. I suspect these are bots buying the ETF approval, however keep in mind these bots provide only short term buying pressure. Their objective is to be in and out of the markets immediately, thus they will sell all of their position, whether that be at a profit or a loss.
If you are long Bitcoin, please keep in mind liquidity starts only as we approach 40k. Thus price can go from 40k to 45k easily. If you have a liquidation or stop loss, you are vulnerable to randomness, (though in reality this "randomness" is market manipulation)
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Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.