BTC Market in Limbo: Patience or Action

BTC Analysis & Trading Plan

1. Overall Trend
• Longer timeframes (1D, 1W) remain in a structurally bullish trend (short MA still > long MA).
• Medium/short timeframes (2H, 4H, 6H) indicate a bearish bias or “lower range.”
• Sentiment indicators (ISPD, Mason’s, HPI) are generally in a neutral zone, with no signs of overbought or oversold conditions.

2. Key Levels
• Immediate support: 95-96k (confirmed by lower AVWAP, 3D Heatmap, and Liquidation Map).
• Critical weekly support: ~89k. A breakdown of this level could trigger a deeper correction toward 80k-74k.
• Short-term resistance: ~98k, followed by the 100-102k zone (short liquidation wall). Beyond that, 105-110k would become a realistic target.

3. ETF Flow & Liquidation
• ETF inflows have remained generally positive since late January, providing partial price support. The temporary outflows in mid-February align with the current consolidation.
• The 7-Day Liquidation Map confirms a significant number of short stop-losses above 98-99k. A decisive break above 100k could trigger a sharp short squeeze.

4. Best Timeframe for Positioning
• Given the volatility on 2H/4H and the lack of a clear trend, the 1D (or possibly 12H) timeframe offers more reliability. On the daily chart, the trend remains technically bullish, but price action is still in lateral correction.
• It’s preferable to wait for a daily close above ~98-99k for a more comfortable buying signal.
• Alternatively, a pullback to 95-94k could provide a lower entry point (consider a tight stop if 89k breaks).

5. Action Plan Summary
• Bullish scenario: If BTC reclaims 98-99k on a daily close, the first target would be 102-105k (AVWAP/heatmap resistance). In case of a short squeeze, 110k is possible.
• Bearish scenario: If 95k fails and price drops toward 89k, beware of a liquidation event. A breakdown of the weekly support at 89k could confirm a correction toward 80k, possibly 74k (50 W MA).
• Current state: The market is ranging with no strong momentum. Partial accumulation at the lower range (95k) is an option for patient traders, or one can wait for a breakout above 98-99k to trade the trend.

Final Thoughts
• The market remains structurally bullish but lacks strong momentum. ETF flows, institutional adoption, and macroeconomic factors contribute to this stagnation.
• ETF flow data and liquidation maps align with technical observations, confirming a tight consolidation range between 95k and 100k.
• In summary: neither extremely bullish nor bearish, but a setup that could persist for several weeks. Key levels to monitor are 95k and 89k as support, 98-100k as resistance.

Recommendations
• For swing trading or mid-to-long-term entries, the daily timeframe is preferable. Positioning near the 95k support or on a confirmed breakout above 99-100k offers a balanced approach.
• Closely monitor ETF inflows (a strong resurgence would confirm a rebound) and liquidation maps (major catalysts for price moves once key thresholds are breached).