BTC/USD Elliott Wave Analysis 12k or 9k?

19 feb 2018

Here we have the situation where EW gives us headaches. Will this be a wave 1 up? or is it only part of a wave 2 before a wave 3 down? Momentum on the Awesome Oscillator indicates that we have bullish divergence on the 1 hr, and the daily AO remains bullish as well. Probability indicates that because we have made multiple tests of the trendline support at what is currently around 10-10.5k, we can expect it to hold for the duration of this uptrend. Waves have an impulsive character, being sharp at the peak rather than rounded, and making higher lows on retracements. My bias is maybe 55% bullish to 45% bearish at this moment.

There is a low risk entry opportunity at wave 2 at 10,450 with a stop just below the trendline.

Upside target: 12.3k

Downside target: 9k or 7.7k if that doesn't hold

Unfortunately our invalidation points are very far away with bearish invalidation at 12.2k and bullish invalidation below 9k.

20 feb 2018

Nota

Adjusted targets UP! :) BTC continues to surprise.

Wave 4 ended in what appears to be a triangle, wave 1 of 5 was unusually strong, and wave 3 of 5 seems to be stronger yet. Who knows, we might even break 13k :)

20 feb 2018

Nota

Looks like we had a leading diagonal in the 1st of the 5th. That explains the unusually strong wave 1. Final target adjust downwards slightly. 11.8k

20 feb 2018

Nota

Sorry, meant to say 11.8k for wave 1, 12k for wave 3, and probably a double top but may overshoot in wave 5.

23 feb 2018

Nota

I mistook the 5th wave as a leading diagonal in the first of the 5th. I should have accounted for a weak 5th wave. Here's an update on the correction in progress which appears to be a type II diagonal triangle.