Bitcoin (BTC) - big accumulation happening, is bottom in?
For those looking for some good news, there is a significant divergence over the past week between price and OBV on the 4H.
I find the 4H OBV with BTC to be the most actionable time frame for trends and trend breaks (the higher time frames I use more via levels).
It is very unusual to see the OBV clearly trending up while price is so significantly trending down. This indicates to me that we are seeing on-balance more accumulation happening in this range than distribution, which can be an indicator of the trend reversal (we see a similar divergence taking place after the period of distribution in Sept, and the break upwards that followed)
Added to this we are now at the area of interest I described in my previous idea, within this 54k range (see related idea).
Market makers are setting up for a big move, it remains to be seen if this is bullish or bearish
But I am pleased to hear the sentiment shifting bearish and finally seeing a large ratio of shorts beginning to accumulate on exchanges after loads of longs being liquidated. These positions will provide the liquidity for a move, which I suspect will be a bullish one.
This does not mean we will not trade lower, it is entirely possibly in the coming week we see wicks down below the 50k zone, which I will be looking to buy. Such a move will see many more shorts being opened which will likely be the liquidity for a significant move upwards. This is the macro movements I am suspecting currently. Though I am ready to shift bearish if we begin trading again in the low side of the 40k range
I see this 54k range as a value area and I am looking to accumulate in dips below this range
It is hard to gauge exactly what the genuine impact of the covid situation will be with institutional buyers and beyond, which could shift everything. Let's see what this week brings
I find the 4H OBV with BTC to be the most actionable time frame for trends and trend breaks (the higher time frames I use more via levels).
It is very unusual to see the OBV clearly trending up while price is so significantly trending down. This indicates to me that we are seeing on-balance more accumulation happening in this range than distribution, which can be an indicator of the trend reversal (we see a similar divergence taking place after the period of distribution in Sept, and the break upwards that followed)
Added to this we are now at the area of interest I described in my previous idea, within this 54k range (see related idea).
Market makers are setting up for a big move, it remains to be seen if this is bullish or bearish
But I am pleased to hear the sentiment shifting bearish and finally seeing a large ratio of shorts beginning to accumulate on exchanges after loads of longs being liquidated. These positions will provide the liquidity for a move, which I suspect will be a bullish one.
This does not mean we will not trade lower, it is entirely possibly in the coming week we see wicks down below the 50k zone, which I will be looking to buy. Such a move will see many more shorts being opened which will likely be the liquidity for a significant move upwards. This is the macro movements I am suspecting currently. Though I am ready to shift bearish if we begin trading again in the low side of the 40k range
I see this 54k range as a value area and I am looking to accumulate in dips below this range
It is hard to gauge exactly what the genuine impact of the covid situation will be with institutional buyers and beyond, which could shift everything. Let's see what this week brings
Mindful that shorts will be looking to open at this order block (56k) at 58-59.5k level with stops above 60k, not out of the question that we dip again quickly to encourage those shorts before another surge up. Obviously I am bias toward bullish momentum, this could be a fake out, but I as with my analysis above I think there are more reasons to think bullish than bearish with the large accumulation that has been happening