Will $78.5K hold or spark a liquidation storm?

Bitcoin is facing intense selling pressure within the critical $78,500 – $82,000 zone on the 4-hour timeframe. A large liquidation cluster in this range (over $800 million in leveraged longs) raises the risk of a sharp drop toward $77,800, a key institutional support level. However, oversold RSI (32) and slowing bearish momentum on the MACD suggest potential exhaustion in sellers, increasing the likelihood of a rebound if the zone holds. A decisive breakdown below $78,500 could accelerate corrective moves toward short-term lows.

A sustained hold above $78,500 followed by a breakout above $82,000 would open a bullish reversal scenario, targeting $86,000 (Fibonacci extension level) and $89,000. Such a move would likely trigger a short squeeze, fueled by liquidations of leveraged shorts and rising buy-side volume.