Bitcoin was a buy on a break above the 8160 line yesterday (though by time comment went live it had already broken higher, sorry- busy day yesterday all round) It was also a buy if missed the first break on a return to the 8160 line overnight, with the low being 8163 since then. But the rally is a little lame so far up 100 or so points. Can raise the stop to 8240 for now.
It's effectively back in neutral, yet again in the very near term whilst trading within the range forming overnight and today bounded by support at the 8160 line and resistance at 8298-8320. Has to break above 8320 to return to positive for rally back to 8478-8576 range. Any break above 8600 at any point on rising volume would be extremely positive and can follow long again from that point looking for 8863 initially and then once broken above to 9367. Until then the best we can do is raise the stop as above or close out as close to the 8300 line for 140 points or so profit (if you were around or had orders placed to buy the dip overnight) and be ready to go again on a break above 8320 on rising volume. Returning to the downside potential from here: has to break below the first support line at 8163-8155 range to trigger a 100 point scalp back to 8053. The next support lies at 7944. It must hold up here at lowest on any retests for the uptrend to remain in tact from here.
25th July 22:18 Bst 17:18 Est The bears are really struggling here. We've had 4 minor waves down with the last being a slightly higher low - there's no momentum building on the downside - there are no sellers . And if that;s the case it have to move up until there are some again.
The support lines have been adjusted accordingly . This mofo is trying to break above 8170 as this is finished. It's not ready to go down yet. So it should push up instead.
Which it's just damn well done. Resistance here at 8230 - must break above here on rising volume to follow long again - it looks ok though to buy the dip if it comes back to 8163 overnight if it sticks here at 8230 - otherwise will have to buy the break higher above 8230 and hope volume picks up behind quickly. If not look to close out again.
July 24th Update Bitcoin Update 24th July 09:42 Bst 04:42 Est The break higher duly came at the rather strange hour of 05:00 Bst and midnight Est. Volume has been quite high though not spectacular. Not much follow through in London though. It's the first time Bitcoin has made such a small surge following a break-out higher and it hasn't reached any clear resistance level either. The rally is a little spooky so far, lacking real intent. The long shot from 7800 is going OK but not great so far. Raising the stop to 7924 for now and hoping it won't get taken before more buyers appear.
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Nota
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A lot of parallels are seeing spikes and false breaks occur in them compared to the old days when institutions and the more sophisticated trend-messing bots weren't so prevalent in the market.
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