Btc: Time to panic sell? What to expect next?

10 apr 2020

Bitcoin saw a 500$ drop in a few hours, can we expect lower low or will we bounce here?

In this post i will update on my last idea on Btc, if you haven't looked at the first part you can click on this picture:

1. Break of the falling Wedge

Now that we have broken down from the Falling Wedge we can assume that the trend turned bearish, this confirms that indeed it was a continuation pattern and not a reversal like many thought.

Understand here that the break is not confirmed yet, although we would need a 500$ pump in the next 10 hours to get back in so technically i will consider that it's pretty much confirmed.

So now that we have establish that, let's look at the bigger view before talking of levels too play.

2. Bigger View



The 6 800 - 6 890 is an important turning point on the weekly timeframe, even though we saw a rise to 7 450 the fact that we dropped back down shows how this level is important for Bulls and Bears.

So far we got rejected on last week close and by the look of things we could get rejected on this weekend too, if you had the fact that we lost the Bear Flag on the 4h and the Rising Wedge on the daily, it's hard to not be bearish for the next couple of days / weeks!

Since the breakout we haven't seen a proper retrace to confirm the broken resistance (5 850 - 6 080) now turned has a support, so it should act has a magnet now that we got rejected 2 times on the 6 850 resistance.

3. Levels to watch

So now what are the important tuning point to see more downside or a potential upside on the Weekly?

- For Bulls: We need to close this weekly candle over 6 770 - 6 825, if we get it than we can start looking for bigger upside to 7 770 - 7 935. My Target would be 11 618 this would be a +71% rise.

- For Bears: We need to close this weekly candle below 6 770 - 6 825, if we get it than we can start looking for a drop around 5 850 - 6 080, this is still a -15% drop.

For the daily:

- For Bulls: We need to close this daily candle over 6 875, if we get it than i expect a relief bounce in the 7 190 region with a potential of even 7 345, understand that i am expecting a bigger drop afterwards!

- For Bears: We need to close this daily candle below 6 875, if we get it than i expect a bigger drop to 5 800, which would make sense with our Bearish idea for the weekly.

But what's the good news?

The good news is that on the weekly time frame we have turned bullish again, this means that if we get that drop around 5.8k - 6k i expect a rise still to 11.6k which would be an increase of 100%, so be ready because this could be our best opportunity to buy low for a while!

I will post a trade idea in my discord group, if you want to fallow it be sure to click on the link below to get access!

If you liked the analysis, feel free to leave a like and/or comment what's your point of view.

Cheers!