Bitcoin (BTC) technical and fundamental analysis

27 feb

📈 Technical analysis BTC/USDT

Bitcoin price has reached all targets from our previous review and set a new local high at $57,400. The driving force behind this growth impulse was the record inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Additionally, fundamental factors such as the upcoming halving and the rise of the US stock market in anticipation of the Fed's move to lower the key interest rate also contributed to this.
Thus, the BTC price has consolidated above the key level of $50,000 and broken above the resistance trendline. Currently, we anticipate a local correction and trading within the 4-hour Imbalance zone to fill in the gaps at horizontal levels of trading volumes. In this zone, a retest of the dynamic support line EMA 50 4H should occur, which will determine the direction of further price movement.
If the price consolidates above it, we expect a test of the $60,000 level. However, considering that the RSI indicator is in extreme overbought territory, there is a high probability of further correction continuation and a retest of the psychological level of $50,000. The next correction targets could be the mirror level of $48,000 and the trendline at the $44,000 level, which are within the range of 0.61 - 0.78 Fibonacci levels, respectively.


📉 Bitcoin market global analysis

On a global scale, the price of BTC has reached exactly the 0.78 Fibonacci correction level from the entire decline since 2021. If it manages to consolidate above it, it would indicate that it's not just a correction anymore, but Bitcoin's price has transitioned to a full-fledged pre-halving bull rally. However, historically, Bitcoin has experienced a correction before each halving. RSI indicator readings are again in the strong overbought zone, and the fear and greed index is in the extreme greed zone. Considering that we haven't had any serious correction since October 2023, all conditions are now forming for its onset. If Bitcoin can maintain its growth momentum until the halving, then after it, we can expect a global correction of all growth since 2023. The halving itself could be a signal to sell, based on the cryptocurrency reaching a local peak, similar to what happened following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US in January 2024. In this case, we would expect a correction in the range of 0.5-0.68 Fibonacci levels and a retest of the 200-week moving average. Also, in this area lies the Imbalance 1W zone of 34,000-31,000, where it is necessary to fill gaps at horizontal levels of trading volumes.




💠 Analysis of zones and levels for making trading decisions

The Fear and Greed Index is in the extreme greed zone at 79.
The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has increased to 2,087 billion dollars, and the Bitcoin dominance index has risen to 53.65.
According to the analysis of the accumulation of large order blocks in exchange order books, demand and supply zones are located at the following levels:
🟢 Demand Zone: 30000 - 40000
🔴 Supply Zone: 60000 - 68000

Levels for long positions:
50,000 - Retest of the key psychological level
48,000 - Significant support block
44,000-45,000 - Potential retest zone of the trendline

Levels for short positions:
60,000 - Test of key psychological resistance level
62,000 - 64,000: Major resistance block
68,000 - 70,000: Test of Bitcoin's historical maximum




📊 Fundamental analysis

The current rise in the price of Bitcoin has been supported by the deadline for settlements on BTC futures contracts. Additionally, there are several fundamental reasons:

Increase in the inflow of funds into cryptocurrency funds: Trading volume of spot Bitcoin ETFs hit a record $2.4 billion. Nine new spot Bitcoin ETFs set a new record for total daily volume.

Bullish rally ahead of the Bitcoin halving, which is 50 days away.

Rise in the US stock market, driven by expectations of the Fed's transition to lowering the key interest rate. This also sparks interest from large investors in digital assets.

The S&P500 index of the largest US companies has again hit its historical maximum, while the DXY dollar index continues its local correction.



🌐 Upcoming Events in the Global Economy

The following dates are expected to bring increased volatility in both the stock and cryptocurrency markets:

➤ 28.02, 16:30 - US GDP data.

➤ 8.03, 16:30 - Data on the unemployment rate in the USA.

➤ 12.03, 16:30 - Consumer inflation index in the USA (CPI).

➤ 20.03, 21:00 - New decision on the Fed interest rate.


📈 Results of signals from our AI trading indicator:

Our trading AI Indicator, as always in advance, predicted the current price action and gave the most profitable entry points into long positions with minimal risk. Thanks to the latest updates, maximum take profit levels have already been taken, and the price movement according to the latest signals on the spot was:
BTC +10.80%
ETH +10.34%
LTC +10.15%




In addition, I would like to share the forecast of the latest Bitcoin price action by our AI, which not only indicates the direction, but also builds the trajectory of further price movement: