Interpretation of cryptocurrency market on March 8th,2023

Last night Powell's hawkish speech caused market volatility again. The market has raised its judgment on the extreme value of interest rates to 5.75% now, raising expectations for a 0.5% increase in March. After the market has already priced at a 5.5% rate, the actual impact has been limited. The focus of the shock may be shifted down again to reflect the new interest rate ceiling. But for now, it is only expected. There is still the possibility of an adjustment due to changes in the data released in March.

Overall it is not a big problem, as there are three months from March to June to observe the data. During this period, there is also the possibility of adjusting the interest rate ceiling. If the data continues to be negative, the 5.75% expectation is gradually realized. After the early valuation, the encashment will also become a bearish exit. It will all be good if the data resumes shaking to the downside.

Last night was a vivid example. The space down was quickly recovered. Given the current situation, even if the center of gravity moves down, the probability is that it will be above 21,000.