Will CME gap support hold any longer?

9 set 2020

Reality usually brings what most people less expect. Many thought CME gap 9665 - 9925 will be quickly closed and BTC bounce back up. This created huge amount of long orders below this zone that been holding price for 6 days already, but CME gap still open. During this time support got much weaker. If those who opened longs below 10k close them on re-test of 10300 (with good profit by the way), this may easily dump price to 9200/9600. If bulls want to gain liquidity, they have to push BTC above 10450 to trigger shorts stops and push price above 11k again. But what I see now is rather bearish picture 🤔

Day: EMA21 at 11211 and EMA89 at 10835 act as dynamic resistance

🟥 10300 - 10490 - 10900 - 11150
🟩 9940 - 9600 - 9450 - 9200

😱 Fear & Greed index: 38 (<= 41)
👑 BTC Dominance: 57.3% (<= 57.6)
⚙️ 24h Volume: $147 billion

10 set 2020

Nota

I leave the BIG forecast same as in yesterday's review. Since bulls didn't manage to push price above 10450 yet, which is a warning sign. Today there will be another attempt. If grow above 10421 good to go further. If fall below 10175 will drop to ~9940 again. And since 10k already tested many times, this support is weak and can let the price fall lower. But I have a feeling that major moves will be saved for Friday or even weekend, while today BTC continue more or less calm sidemoving, while alts will be growing.

Day: EMA21 at 11245 as support and EMA89 at 10766 act as dynamic resistance

13 set 2020

Nota

Yesterday big caps received some bullish volume, first BTC, then big cap alts moved up a little. Certainly not a pump. Besides there is another anchor from CME Futures left behind at 10350 and waiting for Monday. So don't get overexcited - open a week chart and see that its only a part of dead cat bounce - natural reaction to ~18% dump made last week. The higher this bounce will reach the more chances dump won't continue. So still waiting for re-test of 11-11.3k and the rest yet can't be forecasted.

4H: EMA21 at 10367 as support and EMA89 at 10641 act as dynamic resistance

🟥 10700 - 10900 - 11150
🟩 10485 - 10160 - 9940 - 9600

😱 Fear & Greed index: 38 (<= 41 <= 41 <= 38)
👑 BTC Dominance: 55.8% (<= 56.3 <= 56.8 <= 56.6)
⚙️ 24h Volume: $366 billion (<= 321 <= 351)

14 set 2020

Nota

Another week candle closed and price moved nowhere. As you can see at week chart ~9800 support level hold two break down attempts - remember that each test make support weaker. Meanwhile previously broken SR at ~11100/11350 haven't been re-tested yet which maintain its status of potential target. Below BTC has CME gap with strong support between 9100 and 9444. That would be nearest target for second leg down.

4H: EMA21 at 10353 as support and EMA89 at 10602 act as dynamic resistance

🟥 10490 - 10700 - 10900 - 11150
🟩 10260 - 9980 - 9600 - 9200

😱 Fear & Greed index: 39 (<= 38 <= 41 <= 41 <= 38)
👑 BTC Dominance: 56.4% (<= 55.8 <= 56.3 <= 56.8)
⚙️ 24h Volume: $204 billion (<= 366 <= 321 <= 351)

16 set 2020

Nota

What a parade of doji candles at 4H chart. Seem to be at the edge of another bullish attempt to reach ~11150/11350 resistance, although in situation like this any candle can become another bull/bear trap. Each failed attempt move dump closer where nearest support at 10300 and next comes CME gap. Nothing really clear here. No trade zone.



BTC dominance should be pulling back next 4-8 hours. Alts swim in blood and fear, so should be very close to bounce. If you dare, buy the dips. Current prices could be very good at least for a quick scalp.

4H: EMA21 at 10619 and EMA89 at 10631 act as dynamic support

🟥 10900 - 11120 - 11343 - 11650
🟩 10580 - 10490 - 10260 - 9940

😱 Fear & Greed index: 43 (<= 47 <= 39 <= 38 <= 41)
👑 BTC Dominance: 57.8% (<= 56.9 <= 56.4 <= 55.8)
⚙️ 24h Volume: $113 billion (<= 122 <= 204 <= 366)

18 set 2020

Nota

We can see Bitcoin cautiously approaching 11k again. Volume is low and channel is squeezing narrow, so I see two possibilities here for the next few days. Either BTC receives huge volume and breakout 11080 resistance towards 11343, after which dumps. Or it moves sideway losing the rest of bullish momentum and dumps to ~10580 before any major bullish moves happen. Just remember that any dump/pump require quick opposite move to gain liquidity.

BTC dominance hit 61.56 and now pulling back as swell. Temporary. Alts revival is near, but haven't started yet.

4H: EMA21 at 10833 and EMA89 at 10705 act as dynamic support

🟥 11080 - 11150 - 11343 - 11650
🟩 10777 - 10580 - 10490 - 10260

😱 Fear & Greed index: 49 (<= 48 <= 43 <= 47 <= 39)
👑 BTC Dominance: 57.2% (<= 57.6 <= 57.8 <= 56.9)
⚙️ 24h Volume: $98 billion (<= 102 <= 113 <= 122)

20 set 2020

Nota

Yesterday attempt to break 11090 resistance ended up with rejection. BTC returned below that level, but managed to bounce from 10900 support and trendline. So far moves within an uptrend, but rising wedge like this usually ends with dump. So if BTC price keep moving sideway under that resistance, most probably it will drop lower to ~10600. Keep in mind, that diagonal trendlines shouldn't be treated as strong support/resistance cause, just like moving averages, they mostly show the direction of trend.

4H: EMA21 at 10938 and EMA89 at 10771 act as dynamic support

🟥 11090 - 11150 - 11343 - 11650
🟩 10800 - 10580 - 10490 - 10260

😱 Fear & Greed index: 52 (<= 48 <= 49 <= 48 <= 43)
👑 BTC Dominance: 57.3% (<= 57.5 <= 57.2 <= 57.6)
⚙️ 24h Volume: $78 billion (<= 94 <= 98 <= 102)