CADJPY Targeting A Test of 103.50
Technical & Trade View
CADJPY
Trade View
Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 105.70
Technicals
Primary resistance is at 105.70
Primary pattern objective is 103.50
Acceptance below 104.30 next pattern confirmation
Acceptance above 105.70 opens a test of 107
20 Day VWAP bearish , 5 Day VWAP bearish
Institutional Insights
According to analysts at Credit Agricole ‘ While Japan’s inflation is rising, weak wages growth and decelerating global growth will prevent the BoJ from changing its YCC in the near term. The MoF has significant capacity to intervene to support the JPY with USD1.17trn in foreign exchange reserves or about three times the daily value of the currency market in Tokyo. Intervention is unilateral and therefore unlikely to change the trend in the JPY. Only a change in tack by the Fed or the BoJ would change the JPY’s current predicament. We see growing risk of a change in the BoJ’s YCC in 2023 and after the end of Governor Kuroda’s term in April 2023 along with further acceleration in inflation and a potentially strong round of wage negotiations in spring’
CADJPY
Trade View
Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 105.70
Technicals
Primary resistance is at 105.70
Primary pattern objective is 103.50
Acceptance below 104.30 next pattern confirmation
Acceptance above 105.70 opens a test of 107
20 Day VWAP bearish , 5 Day VWAP bearish
Institutional Insights
According to analysts at Credit Agricole ‘ While Japan’s inflation is rising, weak wages growth and decelerating global growth will prevent the BoJ from changing its YCC in the near term. The MoF has significant capacity to intervene to support the JPY with USD1.17trn in foreign exchange reserves or about three times the daily value of the currency market in Tokyo. Intervention is unilateral and therefore unlikely to change the trend in the JPY. Only a change in tack by the Fed or the BoJ would change the JPY’s current predicament. We see growing risk of a change in the BoJ’s YCC in 2023 and after the end of Governor Kuroda’s term in April 2023 along with further acceleration in inflation and a potentially strong round of wage negotiations in spring’
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