CHFJPY Short Idea

CHFJPY Short Idea

COT Report
- Non Commercials are reducing there position in CHF, showing weakness in CHF.
- Non Commercials started taking long positions in JPY, showing strength in JPY.

Endogenous Factors
- JPY score after all indicators is +3 and +4 for last two months
- CHF score after all indicators is -2 and -1 for last two months
- JPY looks stronger and CHF weaker in Leading Economic Indicators

Exogenous Factors
- JPY Interest Rates and Real GDP are getting stronger.
- CHF Interest Rates and Real GDP are getting weaker.

Seasonality
- December is usually a bullish month for CHFJPY, but this time exogenous and endogenous factors, the fundamentals of both currencies, are not looking in favor of the seasonality.

News Catalyst
Expecting a negative or equal to last month CPI data for CHF releasing on Tuesday. This may keep the trend of CHF JPY bearish for next few days as well.

Trade Plan
Place a Sell Limit near Order block or between 32%-50% retracement on h4, expecting it to be triggered before or at CPI news release.
SL is above h4 recent swing high.