Crude oil has risen over 2% since the beginning of the 2024 trading year, marking it as an outperformer among risk assets. Recent price action has displayed higher lows, and higher highs are soon to be tested.
Recent Economic Data:
Recent jobs data displayed larger-than-expected wage growth, as reflected by Average Hourly Earnings. Wages grew at 4.1% YoY, more than estimates of 3.9%. This was coupled with strong job creation in the month of December, as reflected by NonFarm Payrolls, and maximum employment (3.7% unemployment).
With a tight labor market and growing wages, it would be safe to say that demand will remain strong in the near term. The most recent Michigan Consumer reports also suggested consumers felt better about the economy and near-term inflation expectations.
Technicals:
We have observed that crude has begun making higher lows as of late. Dec 13th marked the first low, and Jan 3rd marked the second. On Jan 5th, the market closed within a resistance pocket of 73.50-74.75. We will need to see a break and close above this level, where we can then test the 50-day EMA. A break and close above this level will then lead us to the Dec 26th high, where we will need to break and close above 76.30 to confirm a higher high , and the start of a trend reversal.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: tradingview.com/cme/
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Recent Economic Data:
Recent jobs data displayed larger-than-expected wage growth, as reflected by Average Hourly Earnings. Wages grew at 4.1% YoY, more than estimates of 3.9%. This was coupled with strong job creation in the month of December, as reflected by NonFarm Payrolls, and maximum employment (3.7% unemployment).
With a tight labor market and growing wages, it would be safe to say that demand will remain strong in the near term. The most recent Michigan Consumer reports also suggested consumers felt better about the economy and near-term inflation expectations.
Technicals:
We have observed that crude has begun making higher lows as of late. Dec 13th marked the first low, and Jan 3rd marked the second. On Jan 5th, the market closed within a resistance pocket of 73.50-74.75. We will need to see a break and close above this level, where we can then test the 50-day EMA. A break and close above this level will then lead us to the Dec 26th high, where we will need to break and close above 76.30 to confirm a higher high , and the start of a trend reversal.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: tradingview.com/cme/
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.