Technical Analysis CL SHORT
Between the time period of 24 July 2017 - 1 October 2018 the median price for the abovementioned commodities were as follow:
2.95 USD/lb for COPPER
60 USD/Barrel for WTI CRUDE OIL
1268 USD/Oz GOLD
During the time period of 1 October 2018 - 30 December 2019 the commodities respected the trading range for the most part with the exception of Gold since May 2019
Notice how Gold per Ounce was trading close to the Federal Minimum Wage which when calculated as follow $7.25 per hour x 40 Hours x 52 weeks / 12 Months = 1256.66 USD Minimum per Month.
Median trading range WTI Cude Oil:
In order to calculate the Median trading range for WTI Crude oil by comparing the price IN USD of 2 other commodities namely Copper and Gold.
Take the price of 2.95 USD/lb for COPPER and multiply by 20.833 which equals 61.45 USD this seems to be close to the price of 60 USD/Barrel for WTI CRUDE OIL
Take the price of 60 USD/Barrel for WTI CRUDE OIL and multiply by 20.833 which equals 1280 USD this seems to be close to the price of 1268 USD/Oz GOLD
Take the price of 1268 USD/Oz GOLD and divide by 20.833 which equals 60 USD this seems to be close to the price of 60 USD/Barrel for WTI CRUDE OIL
So the trading range for WTI Crude is around 60 - 62 USD/Barrel
One might ask why 20.833, well taking into consideration a 5 day work week multiplied by 52 week which is the amount of weeks in a year,
it equals 260 days in a year minus the usual 10 federal holidays in the USA and you have 250 workings days in a year ( 250 day moving average anyone!)
One can probably use 21 instead of 20.833.
Copper Consolidation or not:
Since the price of Copper has experienced a consolidation phase since March 2021 being in the trading range of 4 - 5 USD/lb the Median will be at 4.50 USD/lb to make it easy for now.
Which means there is a probability of the price of the other two commodities WTI Crude Oil and Gold increasing as well,
Take the price of 4.50 USD/lb. for COPPER and multiply by 21 which equals 94.50 USD
Take the price of 94.50 USD/Barrel for WTI CRUDE OIL and multiply by 21 which equals 1984.50 USD this seems to be close to the current price of GOLD at its peak within this week.
Take the price of 2000 USD/Oz GOLD and divide by 21 which equals 95.25 USD
Now this is a personal opinion which I cannot state as a fact but taking in consideration the divergence between the MACD and RSI Indicators on the Copper chart,
I am of the opinion that the price of Copper will decrease in price to at least 3.30 USD/lb. over the next two consecutive weeks, also taking into consideration US FED interest rate increase and Evergrande debt repayment date on 23 March 2022,
which means the price of the other commodities might also decrease in price over this period of time.
70 USD/Barrel for WTI Crude Oil
1470 USD/Oz for GOLD
If Copper continues Consolidation I expect GOLD to continue trading above 1984 USD/Oz
If Copper continues Consolidation I expect WTI Crude Oil to trade at 95 USD/Barrel and this is the bottom line.
2.95 USD/lb for COPPER
60 USD/Barrel for WTI CRUDE OIL
1268 USD/Oz GOLD
During the time period of 1 October 2018 - 30 December 2019 the commodities respected the trading range for the most part with the exception of Gold since May 2019
Notice how Gold per Ounce was trading close to the Federal Minimum Wage which when calculated as follow $7.25 per hour x 40 Hours x 52 weeks / 12 Months = 1256.66 USD Minimum per Month.
Median trading range WTI Cude Oil:
In order to calculate the Median trading range for WTI Crude oil by comparing the price IN USD of 2 other commodities namely Copper and Gold.
Take the price of 2.95 USD/lb for COPPER and multiply by 20.833 which equals 61.45 USD this seems to be close to the price of 60 USD/Barrel for WTI CRUDE OIL
Take the price of 60 USD/Barrel for WTI CRUDE OIL and multiply by 20.833 which equals 1280 USD this seems to be close to the price of 1268 USD/Oz GOLD
Take the price of 1268 USD/Oz GOLD and divide by 20.833 which equals 60 USD this seems to be close to the price of 60 USD/Barrel for WTI CRUDE OIL
So the trading range for WTI Crude is around 60 - 62 USD/Barrel
One might ask why 20.833, well taking into consideration a 5 day work week multiplied by 52 week which is the amount of weeks in a year,
it equals 260 days in a year minus the usual 10 federal holidays in the USA and you have 250 workings days in a year ( 250 day moving average anyone!)
One can probably use 21 instead of 20.833.
Copper Consolidation or not:
Since the price of Copper has experienced a consolidation phase since March 2021 being in the trading range of 4 - 5 USD/lb the Median will be at 4.50 USD/lb to make it easy for now.
Which means there is a probability of the price of the other two commodities WTI Crude Oil and Gold increasing as well,
Take the price of 4.50 USD/lb. for COPPER and multiply by 21 which equals 94.50 USD
Take the price of 94.50 USD/Barrel for WTI CRUDE OIL and multiply by 21 which equals 1984.50 USD this seems to be close to the current price of GOLD at its peak within this week.
Take the price of 2000 USD/Oz GOLD and divide by 21 which equals 95.25 USD
Now this is a personal opinion which I cannot state as a fact but taking in consideration the divergence between the MACD and RSI Indicators on the Copper chart,
I am of the opinion that the price of Copper will decrease in price to at least 3.30 USD/lb. over the next two consecutive weeks, also taking into consideration US FED interest rate increase and Evergrande debt repayment date on 23 March 2022,
which means the price of the other commodities might also decrease in price over this period of time.
70 USD/Barrel for WTI Crude Oil
1470 USD/Oz for GOLD
If Copper continues Consolidation I expect GOLD to continue trading above 1984 USD/Oz
If Copper continues Consolidation I expect WTI Crude Oil to trade at 95 USD/Barrel and this is the bottom line.
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