MACRO VIEW: WTI OIL FORECAST CHANGED TO DOWNTREND
Since our last forecast, WTI Oil has fallen out of its lateral range into a full-fledged downtrend on quarterly basis (in relation to 66-day mean).
The downtrend bias is confirmed on the long term picture: oil fell through 20-year moving average (now at 54.54) and also trades firmly below 1st standard deviation from its 10-year moving average (standing at 57.80).
Thus the price has a good chance of re-testing 2015 lows (at 42.03) if it stays in the downtrend risk area below 53.82 (below 1st standard deviation from 66-day mean).
On long term basis the situation in oil markets is different from the financial crisis of 2008-2009, when prices first fell right onto its 20-year moving average (then at 34 dollars) and then bounced back up relatively fast, when the overall situation on global markets normalized.
The late 2014 fall was triggered by internal factors of oil market, such as supply/demand balance and competition among key oil producers. Thus WTI Oil has now more probability to trade around the 20-year moving average for extended periods of time, as prices close to long term means in markets signal uncertainty.
The downtrend bias is confirmed on the long term picture: oil fell through 20-year moving average (now at 54.54) and also trades firmly below 1st standard deviation from its 10-year moving average (standing at 57.80).
Thus the price has a good chance of re-testing 2015 lows (at 42.03) if it stays in the downtrend risk area below 53.82 (below 1st standard deviation from 66-day mean).
On long term basis the situation in oil markets is different from the financial crisis of 2008-2009, when prices first fell right onto its 20-year moving average (then at 34 dollars) and then bounced back up relatively fast, when the overall situation on global markets normalized.
The late 2014 fall was triggered by internal factors of oil market, such as supply/demand balance and competition among key oil producers. Thus WTI Oil has now more probability to trade around the 20-year moving average for extended periods of time, as prices close to long term means in markets signal uncertainty.
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