6/23/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
CRCL
Sizing up the short
- mkt cap of this stonk is now greater than USDC mkt cap
- remember, as rates go lower... so do their "profits"
- competition in stables space is going to be insane, given it's such a simple product to offer
- i've never seen an IPO go 10x in like 2 weeks...
- so yeah. bubble. who knows what happens next.
- but i'm sizing this one up. not my first rodeo. size manage properly, always.
V
a lil simple math
let's say stable cap is 100 bn (it's not, it's 60 bn)
and they get 0.035 LT rate into perpetuity with 0.05 discount rate (i'm oversimplifying here and the way i justify this is let's just assume tons of adoption on the USDC mkt cap e.g. 50% higher and just put that at steady state - assume no competition)
- that's 3.5 bn divided by 5% = $70 bn. or equal to today's mkt cap. anything that we see in the stock here going fwd is just going to retrace, fundamentally... idk when. but we're already at FULL AF valuation, fundamentally. chart bros won't do that math for you. but i will :)
CRCLSizing up the short
- mkt cap of this stonk is now greater than USDC mkt cap
- remember, as rates go lower... so do their "profits"
- competition in stables space is going to be insane, given it's such a simple product to offer
- i've never seen an IPO go 10x in like 2 weeks...
- so yeah. bubble. who knows what happens next.
- but i'm sizing this one up. not my first rodeo. size manage properly, always.
V
a lil simple math
let's say stable cap is 100 bn (it's not, it's 60 bn)
and they get 0.035 LT rate into perpetuity with 0.05 discount rate (i'm oversimplifying here and the way i justify this is let's just assume tons of adoption on the USDC mkt cap e.g. 50% higher and just put that at steady state - assume no competition)
- that's 3.5 bn divided by 5% = $70 bn. or equal to today's mkt cap. anything that we see in the stock here going fwd is just going to retrace, fundamentally... idk when. but we're already at FULL AF valuation, fundamentally. chart bros won't do that math for you. but i will :)
Trade chiuso: obiettivo raggiunto
thing is down almost $100 bucks. unclear what happens next. would reload if we re-test the top. but otherwise... this is in no man's land. the fundamental anchor remains... lower. good luck to all.V
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Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.