CURIS is base forming again?

18 giu 2020

CRIS

DISCLOSURE: II've been a long follower of CURIS since two years ago and experienced an abysmal loss last year because I got married with this stock. LOL.

Key fundamentals:

• $17.5 million shares offering at $1.24 on June 12, 2020.
  
• FDA clearance of IND application for CI-8993 on June 10, 2020 and the stock sky rocketed from .86c to $3.86 range on June 10, 2020.
  
• Stock moved from .86c to $1.22 without any news or materialized events on June 9, 2020.
  
• Curis reports that they only have $12,538 million left on May 12, 2020 with an average cash burn rate of around $8 million.
  
• Aspire capital made an initial investment of $3 million dollars on Feb. 27, 2020. Promising up to 27M investment "based on the market price at the time of each sale, subject to certain limits"
  

Catalyst:
There is only ONE catalyst for CURIS this year. The "CA-4948 in patients with AML/MDS and certain spliceosome mutation" which we have NO indication which quarter this year. Be mindful that the SP tanked on December because the data was, so askew and confusing which the market did not took it very well. What made it worst is that Dentzer made a very strong point months before the release of the data that it is going to be a spectacular year for shareholders, which you will be able to find his interview in Youtube.

Why AML/MDS?
- The market is smaller and a better path from regulatory perspective because it would open opportunities other bigger market opportunities such as non-Hodgkin lymphoma. (see transcript). "if we can target those patients, we can take a story to the FDA, where we can attribute a very specific population that can be identified by very specific genetic mutations that are uniquely addressable with our drug. So that should lead to a very quick regulatory path. So that's the strategy. "

Technical Analysis:
I'm expecting some consolidation in the coming months at the 1.2X range. Then a pop to form a base at around $1.3-1.4 for NASDAQ listing compliance news to prevent reverse split.



I took a very small position as of today at $1.25.