DAX may be at the end of a Bullish Super Cycle.

DAX (DE40) has been trading within a historic 16-year Channel Up every since the March 2009 bottom of the U.S. Housing Crisis. This pattern has showcased very distinct technical patterns within it, characterized by an extremely high degree of symmetry.

As you can see, we have classified them into four Phases and right now DAX appears to be trading on a Phase 3. That is the phase where following a Phase 2 correction to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (blue) of Phase 1, it enters a Bull Cycle, which supported by the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), it peaks on the 1.618 (blue) and 2.236 (black) Fibonacci extensions (of Phase 1 and 2 respectively).

According to this, the index seems to be right at the end of this 'Super Cycle' of Phases 1,2 and 3 and entering Phase 4 of the Channel Up, which (the only data set we have on this pattern) is a period of directionless and volatile trend, loosely supported by the 1M MA50 (red trend-line), which only managed to find support and rebound just before touching the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line) during the March 2020 COVID crash. As a result, Phase 4 can be characterized as a true Bear Cycle, lasting 5 years before (April 2015 - March 2020).

The 1W RSI patterns of the two fractal phase groups are also identical and highly symmetrical and we are already on the 3rd Higher High, rejection and moving downwards. That is a Bearish Divergence and may explain DAX's mostly neutral price action since June 2025.

In any case, the index is possibly ending Phase 3 of this 'Super Cycle' and the next move according to the 2015 sequence is a correction to the 1M MA50. Long-term investors that don't get caught up in the daily volatility, avoid the noise and eventually enjoy the most steady returns on their investments, will most likely seek to wait patiently for this correction and buy low.

What would you be willing to do in that situation?

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