Invesco DB Agriculture FundAggiornato War & Food
Anytime we see a rapid change in food price inflation we end up with global instability and war.
This is not the first time I have pointed this out on tradingview.
In 2011 we had the Arab Spring. In 2022 we have the spread of Russian terrorism, in Syria, Ukraine, all over Africa, Azerbaijan/Armenia, Kosovo/Serbia, and now Israel.
Back in March 2021 when no one suspected inflation, I was warning that a strong dollar would be bad for emerging markets.
By April 2021 I warned again
Today we all see the reality unfold precisely as I warned would happen. Not just in VMO ETF but in nations currencies that have been blowing up all over the place. Turkey, Sri Lanka, Lebanon, Venezuela, Pakistan, Egypt, Zimbabwe, Nigeria, Ukraine, Russia, Japan, etc.. yet they don't call it a global currency crisis for some odd reason.
As we all watch the Israeli war play out, it is important to remember this is not random and unpredictable on the whole. Only the geographical locations that would be involved were unknown. Not that it would happen somewhere in the world.
Here is how it goes
Excessive Gov't borrowing leads to excessive inequality, excessive savings in the hands of the few, excessive asset speculation that flows into commodity prices that cause inflation, cause rates to rise, bonds to implode, a strong dollar, weaker emerging markets, and currency crisis which causes global social unrest.
Food price inflation is the spark that sets off uncontrollable wildfires.
Thx to tradingview no one can say I did not forecast wars were coming. The problem is no one realizes what I am saying when I am saying it. That's the nature of the beast.
This is not the first time I have pointed this out on tradingview.
In 2011 we had the Arab Spring. In 2022 we have the spread of Russian terrorism, in Syria, Ukraine, all over Africa, Azerbaijan/Armenia, Kosovo/Serbia, and now Israel.
Back in March 2021 when no one suspected inflation, I was warning that a strong dollar would be bad for emerging markets.
By April 2021 I warned again
Today we all see the reality unfold precisely as I warned would happen. Not just in VMO ETF but in nations currencies that have been blowing up all over the place. Turkey, Sri Lanka, Lebanon, Venezuela, Pakistan, Egypt, Zimbabwe, Nigeria, Ukraine, Russia, Japan, etc.. yet they don't call it a global currency crisis for some odd reason.
As we all watch the Israeli war play out, it is important to remember this is not random and unpredictable on the whole. Only the geographical locations that would be involved were unknown. Not that it would happen somewhere in the world.
Here is how it goes
Excessive Gov't borrowing leads to excessive inequality, excessive savings in the hands of the few, excessive asset speculation that flows into commodity prices that cause inflation, cause rates to rise, bonds to implode, a strong dollar, weaker emerging markets, and currency crisis which causes global social unrest.
Food price inflation is the spark that sets off uncontrollable wildfires.
Thx to tradingview no one can say I did not forecast wars were coming. The problem is no one realizes what I am saying when I am saying it. That's the nature of the beast.
Nota
BREAKING: Saudi Arabia has halted normalization talks with Israel. Which was the goal
Nota
A lot of US military hardware moving into the Middle East.Nota
For people who dont know Lebanon has been hyperinflating. There are a lot of people in despair and going to bed hungry everynight. With little money they can find enough desperate young men to go to war for themselves or their family.If Isreal suffers large casualties in their counterstrike in Gaza, Hezbollah will smell blood in the water and likely attack too. That escalation will send oil skyrocketing.
Be cautious⚠️
Nota
Here we go! BREAKING: The US allows non-essential diplomatic staff to leave Lebanon
The US has issued a travel warning for Lebanon.
Oil up 2.5% since my last post. This is obviously one time I wish I was wrong but it doesn't look like it. :(
Real Macro Economic Investing
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Real Macro Economic Investing
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