Dow Break Higher a 'Move of Necessity'

For many, a break like the one we've seen from the Dow (here the DIA ETF) is a 'break' and has set expectations for a productive follow through. However, I think it is clear that general market conditions are not conducive to trend development.

I would categorize the Dow's break from its tight wedge this past session as a 'break of necessity' where the market just ran out of room to move. The technical break is amplified by the thin market conditions and generate what looks like a more ambitious break than what the market is actually willing to follow on.

Ultimately, time will tell with what happens - or doesn't - tomorrow, but I set market conditions above fundamentals and technicals when making trade decisions.