DXY - 50% retracement completed

4 feb 2023

Hello everyone,

The risk associated with trading short on the dollar has been highly increased. While the equity market and major indexes rallied as predicted by my other schematic to highest points in 7 months and talks of a new ATH in the market start, the dollar has fully completed its 50% retracement, a fake breakout to the downside was seen before a bullish break out of a descending parallel channel, however still sitting below the 50, 100, and 200 SMA.

The current goal of the bulls is to challange and break 50 SMA resistance, which would increase chances of an increase to 0.786 previous major support level.

In comparison, SPX has rejected the 0.786, closing the daily with a doji candle which indicates short-medium term bearish momentum.


I would take lots of caution trading long on risk-on assets.

Let me know your ideas.

6 feb 2023

Nota

Hourly has closed above the 50 SMA. A daily close above 50 SMA is needed to confirm larger time frame momentum.

10 feb 2023

Nota

Daily candle has pierced 50 SMA after acting as resistance, as we see CPI was revised to +0.1% vs -0.1% reported, showing even the jaw dropping collapse in energy prices won't stop headline inflation from increasing, which lowers chances for the hoped soft landing from the fed.

Short-term from the bulls would be a push towards 200D SMA resistance zone and 0.786.

17 feb 2023

Nota

A breach above 104.2 has occurred. The resistance zones currently lie as predicted at 0.618 and 200 SMA/EMA. Current momentum indicates further upside potential.

21 feb 2023

Nota

21 feb 2023

Nota

Gravestone candle on 200 EMA resistance level as expected. RSI staying in bullish territory suggests this is ready to revisit 200 SMA (106.4)

23 feb 2023

Nota

Momentum as expected, although volume is decreasing at an important level coinciding with 200 EMA & 0.618. Expect a test and some correction. Could be a start of wave 2.

24 feb 2023

Nota

To update on the SPX theory, we have closed in on 200 MA as predicted. The current price indicates a high chance of revisiting the lows pointed out previously due to macro conditions, weak economy and strong USD. 200 MA needs to hold candle daily close to maintain upside potential.

USD to continuing bullish momentum currently above the 0.618, closing in on the area of resistance (200 MA) predicted previously. What is interesting is there seems to be no major correction on medium time frame. Are we in wave 3 phase of a major USD bull run.

28 feb 2023

Nota

Correction from 105.37, longer TF MA confirm a resistance in this area, this opens up higher chances for the correction I have suspected. It is possible we find support back at 103.27 (100 MA).

7 mar 2023

Nota

Price retraced 104.3 but did not complete a full retracement before moving above established resistance. RSI staying in neutral but current move indicates target price range at the 200 D MA as expected.

7 mar 2023

Nota

To clarify the retracement idea above, the price wicked several times at the 0.5 short term.

12 mar 2023

Nota

Early update before CPI week, current market sentiment is basically inline with technicals. It is likely DXY will continue to decline until support at 103.4, which I was estimating prior to market sentiment change, is established.

13 mar 2023

Nota

RSI recovering and MA hit.

15 mar 2023

Nota

Bullish wicking at support zone was the confirmation :) Currently facing 100 EMA and 0.618 resistance. The volume is very nice, momentum confirming a bullish wave.

23 mar 2023

Nota

USD strength dropped massively since recent events for price to continue back to the 0.5 where it is consolidating. Technically, this isn't a good position as we have retraced further the prior high, invalidating a further higher high. RSI has decreased substantially however volume is picking back up unsurprisingly. A rebound higher here is very likely. I'm waiting for a move to the 50 MA (103.4) to TP.

24 mar 2023

Nota

TP hit at 50 MA, sitting this out for now.