Another 48h - DXY confirms long-term trend reversal
“I'm only rich because I know when I'm wrong.” George Soros
Another 48h - DXY confirms long-term trend reversal in the medium term
December 2005 - (92.630 points) - last high before long-term low May 2008 - (70.698 points) - long-term low March 2017 - (103.820 points) - mid-term high May 2018 - (88.942 points) - low after mid-term high November 2022 - (114.778 points) - new 2nd mid-term higher high after long-term low November 2023 - (99.578 points) - new 2nd mid-term higher low after long-term low
In early 2022, the DXY shot up as the war began in eastern Ukraine. Since then, the US dollar has proven itself to be a liquid haven also due to the FED's consistent restrictive monetary policy - where everyone, including you and me (as simple private individuals who want to quickly earn legal money on the financial market). Which in turn was just a logical reaction function, if you will, due to the US government's fiscal policy. First the Corona virus outbreak and then the costs of war in Eastern Europe. Because FED boss Jay and his decision-makers were in our so-called West the fastest and highest when it came to raising interest rates from 2022. So many people invested their money in the liquid haven of the US dollar - whether with a fixed interest rate, in Chicago (thanks to a higher and more expensive yield curve) and/or even with a risk premium, in New York (in the stock market).
What is interesting in this historical geopolitical context, at least in my humble opinion, is the fact that the last high was in September 2022, at 114.778 - and still is today. Why? Because it`s the high and low in the week of September 2001, during the terrorist attacks on the Twin Towers, the World Trade Center, which was traded at 115.100 and/or 112.200 at that time back than. And that before the historic sell-off of the US dollar began in the following spring of 2002 - down to 70.698 (in May 2008).
70.698 points - (May 2008) - long-term low 88.942 points - (May 2018) - low after mid-term high 92.630 points - (December 2005) - last high before long-term low 99.578 points - (November 2023) - new 2nd mid-term higher low after long-term low 103.820 points - (March 2017) - mid-term high 114.778 points - (November 2022) - new 2nd mid-term higher high after long-term low
Currently, in October 2024, while the DXY is currently trading at 103,218 on Tuesday evening, October 15, 2024 (Central European Time), both the 103,820 and 99,630 levels are leading the way. Why? Because a price action above 103,820 points clears the way for further highs in the medium term in 2025 - 106,517 (annual high in 2024) and/or also 107,348 (annual high in 2023)! At least if you try to analyze the price action of the DXY regardless of all geopolitical influences, let alone US fiscal policy and US monetary policy!? And or also to anticipate?!
Be that as it may, I personally have no expectations about the DXY at the moment. And accordingly no 4XSetUp was formulated. Because I don't want to and can't formulate a 4XSetUp because of that I just formulated. To saty honest, I secretly assumed that the DXY would tend to break out downwards. Also formulated 2 short USD/JPY 4XSetUps after the DXY became nominally cheaper in July this year 2024. But in the last 3 weeks I was caught on the wrong foot - and since then I have generally preferred to practice silence and humility. I don't believe I know it better!? I don't think i believe it better?! So, from now on, just my daily thoughts, my opinion, about the hot dog ;) about US dollar, in the form of the DXY - without a 4XSetUp for the next days...
Another 48h is pure information material. By trying to give you even more information about the DXY every day to make even better trading decisions (buy/sell or do nothing). The goal of each day is from my side that you say to yourself after reading: "I don`t noticed that before!" Because then you have received new information; yes - maybe even learned something!? If, yes? Then give me a like - and continue reading tomorrow! Concrete 4XSetUps with entry price, target price and also stop price are available in the daily 4XSetUps...
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