DXY price(P) is decided by D & S.
Now the rate(R) is 1.75, suppose D=S,
1.when R not changed, P is up, means, D is up, S should increase, in order to keep the balance;
2.when P decreased, R not changed, D is down, S should also down, if S keeps up, that means the Equity price may have bubble;
3.when R is down, but P increased, D is up, S should be cut, if S keeps up, that also means it will got the same result as 2.
.... And so on, that's only my analysis, maybe it is wrong.
The difficulty is that the said "Balance" is not fixed, it is hard to judge. Meanwhile, when the central bank uses the rate to control the inflation. That will also lead to break the balance sometimes.
Now the rate(R) is 1.75, suppose D=S,
1.when R not changed, P is up, means, D is up, S should increase, in order to keep the balance;
2.when P decreased, R not changed, D is down, S should also down, if S keeps up, that means the Equity price may have bubble;
3.when R is down, but P increased, D is up, S should be cut, if S keeps up, that also means it will got the same result as 2.
.... And so on, that's only my analysis, maybe it is wrong.
The difficulty is that the said "Balance" is not fixed, it is hard to judge. Meanwhile, when the central bank uses the rate to control the inflation. That will also lead to break the balance sometimes.
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In the updated chart, I'm trying to use the logic to explain the 1970~80's stagflation.invst.ly/pjz3-
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Look to the futureinvst.ly/pjzsq
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Are we in a Malthusian Trap now? low birth, low death and low economic growth...Nota
update for DXY 240M chartNota
Let Dollar only for the US.,block-chain will finally take the place in worldwide tradings...Nota
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EURUSD 30M chartNota
Nas100They continues to buy till Apr. It's now moving in an expanding wedge and likely in wave w~z structure.
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Blockchain in support of the UN SDGs was held by BAI and UN in NYC on Jan. 15,2020.Nota
Nowadays, it shows more and more disadvantage in using the USD for international trades, and think of the huge US debts... As a lawful currency of the US, it's ok, but not suitable for the worlds.Nota
Nowadays, it shows more and more disadvantage in using the USD for international trades, and think of the huge US debts... As a lawful currency of the US, it's ok for the US ONLY, but not suitable for the worlds.Nota
update for NAS100Nota
update for EUNota
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EURUSDThe gap in Y2017 was closed!
ximalaya.com/keji/4156778/247692900
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DXYNota
EURCNHNota
EURUSDnow it hit the channel border
tradingview.com/x/Fo2gWFth/r
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DXYNota
NAS100 dropped 15% after new high on Feb 20Nota
US30 dropped 14.5%, after new high on Feb 12Nota
DXY also topped on Feb.20, Nasdaq is more like a game of dollar.Nota
EURUSDNota
DXYNota
DXY flowed to the equities for a long term and built the bullish market, it is like a Eden of few ppl. But now comes the N-cov., the problems of M supply imbalance is now intensified. That is why the rate cut this time will bring little help to the market.Nota
let's watch the inflation in the following months.Nota
EURUSDShort term tp hit perfectly
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USDCNH, watch itNota
From my earlier chart, as the rate is going down, and the supply for DXY is still moving up, however the demand is also moving up, that means a possible liquidity trap is forming. Plus high increasing debts, think what will happen next....Nota
FED lowered the target range for interest rate by 100bps to 0-0.25 percent and launched a massive $700 billion QE program during an emergency move on Mar. 15th to protect the US economy from the effects of the coronavirus.Nota
Oil price race is a business competition for a simple business purpose, but triggered the hiding debt crisis, plus the con-virus effect, bringing the debt deflation.Compare of the two significant oil price race in history,
In 1970's the price race was cutting the capacity to higher the price, and at that time US was suffering the stagflation.
However this time it is increasing the capacity to lower the price, and now there's potential a great depression caused by the debt deflation.
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Isn't it the Great Recession?High Debt with high unemployment, but low inflation and zero rate...
Let's see how's the inflation rate to be announced
on Apr.10. Will it be under 2.0?
Fay Lee
Apr.9
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Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.