Trade Plan For Monday for anyone that treats ES futures or SPX
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FOMC WEEK‼️
Plan for Monday: Supports are 4914 (major), 4912, 4903-05 (major), 4897 (major), 4892, 4880, 4875 (major), 4861 (major), 4857, 4846, 4836-39 (major).
I am still holding 1 runner from Wednesdays late day 4891 bounce. 4925 to 4897 remains a brutal, complex chop range and it will only get trappier the longer we stay inside it (before the inevitable massive trend move out of it). As I’ve been saying since Wednesday, if you over-trade in this, you will lose money. It will be messy, trap-filled, and complex. Do not expect easy follow thru until this range breaks out with conviction (you’ll know exactly when it breaks out, it will look and feel like a breakout). I’ll be barely be trading inside this range and it will take plenty of creativity to do so. 4914 is first support down. This is right in the middle of this chop range so there is not much edge here any more for me..but something like tests of 4912 or lower that reclaim and pop back over 4914 may be of interest for longs. Also, a failed breakdown and reclaim of 4903-05 will be interesting to try. If that level fails, we will test 4897 and this is probably the last stop before sellers really want to sell us down hard. It has been heavily tested now, but one could try a long there as a “last try attempt” or wait for the failed breakdown of 4898 to get long for a lower risk. Below there, we start the sell and I’ll be short, and I’d only stick to the levels marked as major for longs (4880-75, 4861 etc).
Resistances are 4925 (major), 4934, 4942 (major), 4953, 4959, 4964, 4967-70 (major), 4977, 4990-92 (major), 5001, 5008, 5018 (major), 5027 (major)
If bulls resume in pushing us higher Monday, yall should already know what im going to say. I dont not counter trend trade, so I will not be shorting any of the above resistances. Those are low win rate trades that will fail 70% of the time. BUT, for those who like them, the levels marked as major would be the spots to try. 4942, and 4967-70 would be the most attractive spots.
In general, We have a big week coming up, with FOMC on Wednesday. This means to “enjoy” the calm price action while it is here, as volatility is coming (last FOMC saw a 90 point rally in 1 day). As y’all know though, my lean will always stay with the trend. This means as long as buyers hold that 4905, 4897 support zone Monday, investors can base under 4925 for the push up to 4942+. 4897 fails, we can try some shorts finally, and it will be up to bears how deep they want to take it. Hope you have a great week folks!
Plan for Monday: Supports are 4914 (major), 4912, 4903-05 (major), 4897 (major), 4892, 4880, 4875 (major), 4861 (major), 4857, 4846, 4836-39 (major).
I am still holding 1 runner from Wednesdays late day 4891 bounce. 4925 to 4897 remains a brutal, complex chop range and it will only get trappier the longer we stay inside it (before the inevitable massive trend move out of it). As I’ve been saying since Wednesday, if you over-trade in this, you will lose money. It will be messy, trap-filled, and complex. Do not expect easy follow thru until this range breaks out with conviction (you’ll know exactly when it breaks out, it will look and feel like a breakout). I’ll be barely be trading inside this range and it will take plenty of creativity to do so. 4914 is first support down. This is right in the middle of this chop range so there is not much edge here any more for me..but something like tests of 4912 or lower that reclaim and pop back over 4914 may be of interest for longs. Also, a failed breakdown and reclaim of 4903-05 will be interesting to try. If that level fails, we will test 4897 and this is probably the last stop before sellers really want to sell us down hard. It has been heavily tested now, but one could try a long there as a “last try attempt” or wait for the failed breakdown of 4898 to get long for a lower risk. Below there, we start the sell and I’ll be short, and I’d only stick to the levels marked as major for longs (4880-75, 4861 etc).
Resistances are 4925 (major), 4934, 4942 (major), 4953, 4959, 4964, 4967-70 (major), 4977, 4990-92 (major), 5001, 5008, 5018 (major), 5027 (major)
If bulls resume in pushing us higher Monday, yall should already know what im going to say. I dont not counter trend trade, so I will not be shorting any of the above resistances. Those are low win rate trades that will fail 70% of the time. BUT, for those who like them, the levels marked as major would be the spots to try. 4942, and 4967-70 would be the most attractive spots.
In general, We have a big week coming up, with FOMC on Wednesday. This means to “enjoy” the calm price action while it is here, as volatility is coming (last FOMC saw a 90 point rally in 1 day). As y’all know though, my lean will always stay with the trend. This means as long as buyers hold that 4905, 4897 support zone Monday, investors can base under 4925 for the push up to 4942+. 4897 fails, we can try some shorts finally, and it will be up to bears how deep they want to take it. Hope you have a great week folks!
Nota
Long idea from 4903-05 area worked to perfection! Ending the day, Breaking out of this consolidation range, and up near 4954 to close out the day!
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