MikeSans
Short

SPX - Transitory WTF? / Persistently SHORT (DEBT CEILING/USTs)

CME_MINI:ES1!   Futures E-mini S&P 500
44 visualizzazioni
2
44 0
FED DAY...Does it really matter?
G20 one week later...Does it really matter?

"Reality-TV" at its Best and the leading character President Tweet (T). The best soap opera in town...the Fed & Mr.T, they were made for each other! I have no clue what direction this thing will go between today and Monday 01July,19, but it will eventually go down, they always do! Up or Down, its Never a straight line!

NO Sustaining Macro to continue the momentum.
Unknown Unknowns: 1) Fed cuts immediately and start QE ; 2) Mr. T announces end of China TW G20 weekend...be prepared for Drama = Volatility!

It Doesn't Matter...DEBT CEILLING, NO ability to write UST's (Global Banking Liquidity), Government Spending STOPS (6-8 Weeks)...the battle lines are being drawn and NO ONE is talking about it! This is the single trigger that could start a recession and the incompetents do not understand any of it or the consequences...TBD! Keep a Reserve! Good Entry PT coming...
Commento: “We did not think that a Trump-Xi meeting would materialize, but there have been some noises in recent days that suggested some movement was afoot. Perhaps a short-term trade deal may be politically more advantageous than standing on ceremony and demanding one deal that resolves all the multi-dimensional complexities.  Mnuchin's deal from last year might not look so bad.  Trump's language has changed.  From wanting a "grand deal or no deal," the US President now says a "fair deal" is desired.”  
http://www.marctomarket.com/2019/06/stil...

NOTHING would surprise me…Two words do not come out of my mouth, Never & Always! TBD!
Commento: If you ask McElligott, Powell can “thread the needle” without pulling the trigger (to mix metaphors) “via a very clear message on Fed easing intentions going forward.”

By that he means the statement would drop the reference to “patience” (if they retain that it will be a disaster, by the way), by deploying the “insurance” language in the course of discussing the preparedness to act (Bernanke would call it “courage”), and by “dropping dots to neutral/towards EFFR and potentially bringing forward the end of QT even sooner.”

What would that entail for markets? Well, according to McElligott, it would mean this:

This above scenario—no “cut” but powerful “dovish” guidance—would likely see Rates and Equities initially impulse selloff, before stabilizing again thereafter, as markets realize that cuts are even a greater inevitability—thus, those future Fed cuts simply get pushed out into 2020 with calendar spreads inverting further negative.
Commento: Bottom Line: The Fed greenlit a July rate cut. The dots suggest more will follow, with a minimum of 50bp on the way. While I think July is pretty much locked in, future cuts are of course data dependent. --Tim Duy's Fed Watch

Watch the Debt Ceiling...The battle of the incompetents!

Good Luck!
Home Screener azioni Screener forex Screener cripto Calendario economico Come funziona Caratteristiche Grafico Costi Regolamento Moderatori Soluzioni per broker & siti web Widget Librerie grafiche Chiedi aiuto Suggerisci funzionalità Blog & Novità FAQ Wiki Twitter
Profilo Impostazioni profilo Account e fatturazione Chiedi aiuto Idee pubblicate Follower Seguiti Messaggi Privati Chat Esci