S&P 6/29 Recap

29 giu 2020

It seems like we are approaching another critical point regarding the pandemic. While certain states were moving towards progressing in their reopening efforts, a string of record daily increases has reignited headline anxiety about a path forward. While FL, TX, and AZ are the states that are seeing the most attention, NJ, OH, and WA are becoming louder in the the conversation. Arguing about testing methodology and masks has replaced sports as something to argue with your neighbors/friends about. Two things are certain to me: 1) state governments have failed (and continue to fail...) to provide logical and adequate measures to prevent further spread of the virus and 2) we are going to continue to argue ad nauseam about solutions. One other aspect that is hurting sentiment at this junction is the failure of congress to come to terms on further stimulus. Whether or not you agree with stimulus measures, the reality is they are the new normal and need to be considered. This has dented sentiment and to me, is part of the explanation as to why we have seen a choppy environment the past week or so. However, S&Ps finished higher on the day and closed back above the 3000 mark. A M/M increase in pending home sales and a better than expected Dallas fed report helped support prices. Technically, I think the tilt is still to the downside with the 9-day MA providing resistance and the 50-day MA providing some consistent support lately. I think if we get a push through that 50-day MA, it could get really ugly.

Side note: I am exhausted about talking (read: complaining) about the Fed and it's influence over asset prices across the board. However, the sentiment they have created is that any virus-related-knee-jerk-negativity in equities is almost always met with shorter term "don't fight the Fed" type of reversal.